Understanding Mexico's economic landscape via data transformations

Key Takeaways

• The recent update from the SHF House Price Index reveals significant insights into the state of the housing market, particularly with the new observation of 8.71% YoY inflation as of 2026-01-01.
• The DFM nowcast provides valuable context, estimating house price inflation at 8.65% YoY as of 2026-05-01.

The recent update from the SHF House Price Index reveals significant insights into the state of the housing market, particularly with the new observation of 8.71% YoY inflation as of 2026-01-01. This level of house price inflation exceeds historical averages, positioning itself in the 75th percentile since 2006. In comparison, headline CPI inflation stands at 3.94% while housing CPI inflation is at 3.61%, suggesting that house prices are rising notably faster than general inflation metrics. This divergence reflects the ongoing demand pressures in the housing sector, despite a slight decline of 0.21 percentage points from the previous quarter.

The DFM nowcast provides valuable context, estimating house price inflation at 8.65% YoY as of 2026-05-01. This nowcast aligns closely with the latest observed value, indicating that auxiliary indicators such as mortgage lending and housing CPI are confirming the current trajectory rather than suggesting any significant upward or downward pressure. The model's consistency with observed data suggests that the dynamics within the housing market remain robust and supportive of sustained inflationary trends.

The SHF House Price Index is published quarterly by Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal, Mexico's federal mortgage development bank, typically around 40 days after the reference quarter ends. It is constructed from mortgage appraisal data (avalúos) using a Case-Shiller repeat-sales methodology, with breakdowns by state, new vs. used housing, and market segment (affordable vs. mid-to-high-end). Because the index reflects prices at the point of mortgage origination, it captures credit-driven demand rather than asking prices, making it a tighter gauge of actual transaction values and collateral quality across the housing market.

A Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) filters the quarterly SHF House Price Index using five Banxico auxiliary series — the funding rate, mortgage lending volumes, a housing purchase survey indicator, the SPF unemployment forecast, and construction activity — plus two CPI components (headline and housing subcategory). The model extracts a common factor from these seven indicators, producing a smoothed nowcast that updates between quarterly SHF releases whenever auxiliary data arrive. This filtered estimate helps distinguish persistent trends from quarterly noise in the observed house price series.

Out-of-sample backtest over 12 evaluation windows using the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). Out-of-sample backtest over 12 evaluation windows using the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). RMSE measures the typical forecast error in the same units as the series; 'naive' is a no-change benchmark. House Price Nowcast (RMSE 1.32 vs 0.66 naive, n=12).

Key Takeaways

• Brent oil prices just jumped to $106.30 as of May 2026, reflecting a staggering YoY increase of 65.8%.
• Copper prices are hitting $13,483.75, up 41.5% YoY as of May 2026.
• Corn prices are at $215.62, reflecting a modest YoY increase of 5.3%.

Brent oil prices just jumped to $106.30 as of May 2026, reflecting a staggering YoY increase of 65.8%. Brent oil prices through May 2026 show a notable rise, landing at $106.30. This marks a significant YoY change of +65.8%, and the momentum is clearly up, with prices climbing in recent days. For Mexico, where oil is a major export and accounts for about 15% of federal revenue, these figures are crucial — they could bolster government finances and Pemex operations.

Copper prices are hitting $13,483.75, up 41.5% YoY as of May 2026. With copper data updated to May 2026, the current price stands at $13,483.75, showcasing a robust YoY increase of 41.5%. The trend remains upward, indicating strong demand in the global market. Given that Sonora dominates copper production in Mexico, this surge could enhance regional economic activity, despite the sector's small employment footprint.

Corn prices are at $215.62, reflecting a modest YoY increase of 5.3%. As of May 2026, corn prices reached $215.62, showing a slight YoY rise of 5.3%. The trend appears stable, neither soaring nor plummeting significantly. This is particularly relevant for Mexico, where corn is a staple for many, and price stability is key for the 1.5 million smallholder farmers dependent on this crop.

Commodity prices feed directly into Mexico's inflation pulse and terms of trade. Oil and corn affect energy and food costs, while copper is a proxy for global industrial demand. For policymakers, sharp commodity swings can shift inflation expectations and fiscal balances, making these prices critical to monitor.

Key Takeaways

• The May 2026 IMSS release shows unit labor costs at -3.41%, indicating productivity gains outpacing wage growth.
• Real wages in the formal sector reflect a concerning trend, with manufacturing experiencing negative growth.
• Across sectors, a stark divergence emerges, particularly in real wage growth.

The May 2026 IMSS release shows unit labor costs at -3.41%, indicating productivity gains outpacing wage growth. Following May's formal sector wage data, ULC has fallen, sitting at the 19th percentile with a month-over-month increase of 1.18. This decline suggests that productivity is growing faster than wages, which could enhance competitiveness but may also hint at potential wage suppression in the manufacturing sector. Employers are gaining an edge, but this trend could be a double-edged sword for workers as their earnings lag behind productivity improvements.

Real wages in the formal sector reflect a concerning trend, with manufacturing experiencing negative growth. Currently, real wages in manufacturing are at -2.59%, signifying a decline in purchasing power for households dependent on this sector. As the cost of living continues to rise, households are feeling the pinch, which could dampen consumer spending and overall economic sentiment. Meanwhile, the retail sector paints a different picture, with real wages up at 6.03%, providing a breath of fresh air for those involved in retail work.

Across sectors, a stark divergence emerges, particularly in real wage growth. While retail workers enjoy a robust uptick in real wages, manufacturing lags significantly behind, underscoring the varying economic realities faced by workers in these sectors. The contrasting performance highlights the resilience of the retail sector amid broader economic challenges, while manufacturing workers are still grappling with wage stagnation. This divergence could influence labor dynamics and spending patterns, impacting overall economic recovery.

Unit labor costs (ULC) measure the average cost of labor per unit of output — when wages grow faster than productivity, ULC rises, potentially squeezing profit margins and fueling inflation. In Mexico, where the formal sector employs roughly half the workforce, IMSS-registered wage data captures trends in the formal economy but misses the informal sector's dynamics. Real wages — nominal wages adjusted for inflation — determine household purchasing power and underpin consumer demand. For policymakers, these indicators help balance inflation control, competitiveness, and the economic welfare of Mexican workers.

Twelve-month-ahead forecasts for unit labor costs and real wages in manufacturing and retail are produced using a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous inputs (SARIMAX) model. The model is estimated on seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage changes, with all four series — ULC manufacturing, ULC retail, real wage manufacturing, and real wage retail — entering as joint endogenous variables. No external auxiliary data feed the forecast; the model relies solely on the internal dynamics and cross-series interactions of the wage and productivity data. Forecast confidence intervals widen over the projection horizon.

Out-of-sample backtest over 24 evaluation windows using the SARIMAX. Out-of-sample backtest over 24 evaluation windows using the SARIMAX. RMSE measures the typical forecast error in the same units as the series; 'naive' is a no-change benchmark. ULC Manufacturing (RMSE 2.97 vs 3.21 naive, +7% improvement, n=24); ULC Retail (RMSE 5.33 vs 5.22 naive, n=23); Real Wage Manufacturing (RMSE 2.20 vs 2.62 naive, +16% improvement, n=24); Real Wage Retail (RMSE 3.05 vs 2.97 naive, n=23).

Key Takeaways

• The latest ENOE survey for May 2026 shows unemployment at 3.43%, reflecting a continued downward trend that has persisted for over four years.
• By gender, male unemployment sits at 3.31%, while female unemployment is slightly higher at 3.48%.
• The share of informal workers in the economy has risen, now standing at 55.7%, which is concerning given its high percentile ranking.

The latest ENOE survey for May 2026 shows unemployment at 3.43%, reflecting a continued downward trend that has persisted for over four years. The May 2026 ENOE survey shows unemployment at 3.43%, around the 1st percentile historically and marking a decrease of 0.01% from April. This downward trajectory has been consistent, with the rate now on a 58-month streak of declines. The implications are clear: while the labor market appears to be tightening, ongoing structural challenges remain, particularly in relation to economic policy uncertainty.

By gender, male unemployment sits at 3.31%, while female unemployment is slightly higher at 3.48%. Male and female unemployment rates registered at 3.31% and 3.48%, respectively, indicating a modest divergence with women's unemployment slightly outpacing men's. Despite both rates trending downward, the persistence of this gap suggests different labor market dynamics at play, possibly influenced by sectoral employment differences and varying access to opportunities.

The share of informal workers in the economy has risen, now standing at 55.7%, which is concerning given its high percentile ranking. Informal employment has increased to 55.7%, reflecting a rise that points to economic insecurity as workers may be turning to less stable job arrangements. This trend signals potential weaknesses in the formal labor market, and a growing reliance on informal sectors could complicate efforts to improve overall economic stability.

Labor slack and its composition shape inflation pressure, policy timing, and social risk. Unemployment, underemployment, and unemployment by gender reveal how broad and uneven slack is. In Mexico's large informal sector, the informal employment share can swing sharply — often contracting faster in downturns as unprotected jobs are cut first, then rebounding early — masking true slack if headline unemployment alone is tracked. Tracking these dimensions helps distinguish cyclical slack from structural mismatches and calibrate monetary policy accordingly.

Between quarterly ENOE survey releases, a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) nowcasts employment indicators using higher-frequency auxiliary data. The model ingests monthly series — industrial production, consumer confidence, capacity utilization, retail sales, and private consumption — alongside quarterly GDP components to extract common factors that track the business cycle. When any auxiliary series receives new data, the Kalman filter updates the nowcast, providing an early signal before the next official employment release.

Out-of-sample backtest over 20 evaluation windows using the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). Out-of-sample backtest over 20 evaluation windows using the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). RMSE measures the typical forecast error in the same units as the series; 'naive' is a no-change benchmark. Unemployment (RMSE 22.27 vs 0.13 naive, n=17); Underemployment (RMSE 1.26 vs 0.50 naive, n=11); Male Unemployment (RMSE 0.44 vs 0.26 naive, n=11); Female Unemployment (RMSE 0.44 vs 0.28 naive, n=11).

Key Takeaways

• INEGI's Q2 2026 productivity release shows secondary sector output at 102, reflecting a slight decline of -0.79% from the previous month, but a modest increase of 0.313% from six months ago.
• Across the PCA indices, manufacturing composites show a concerning divergence between productivity and labor demand metrics.
• Within manufacturing, the top-performing subsectors include transport equipment and food, both showcasing resilience amid overall sector fluctuations.

INEGI's Q2 2026 productivity release shows secondary sector output at 102, reflecting a slight decline of -0.79% from the previous month, but a modest increase of 0.313% from six months ago. Despite the recent dip, the aggregate index remains in the 81st percentile historically, suggesting robust underlying strength. This performance is largely driven by manufacturing, which continues to dominate the secondary sector with a hefty 66.57% share. While construction also holds up well at a healthy 85th percentile, mining is lagging significantly, underscoring a lack of broad-based growth across all subsectors.

Across the PCA indices, manufacturing composites show a concerning divergence between productivity and labor demand metrics. Productivity has slipped by -0.223%, while sales increased slightly by 0.0281%, indicating a potential buildup of inventory pressure. This misalignment raises sustainability concerns as firms may face challenges in maintaining output levels amid rising costs and declining demand for labor.

Within manufacturing, the top-performing subsectors include transport equipment and food, both showcasing resilience amid overall sector fluctuations. Transport equipment experienced a notable rise of 2.99%, while the food subsector remains strong at the 84th percentile. In contrast, the petroleum and coal products sector is struggling, with a significant decline of -10.5%, which reflects broader issues in energy pricing affecting manufacturing dynamics.

Productivity trends reveal the economy's capacity to grow without stoking inflation. In Mexico, productivity in the secondary sector — mining, energy, construction, and especially manufacturing — signals how efficiently output expands relative to inputs. Strong productivity gains mean firms can meet demand without raising prices, easing inflation pressure and supporting sustainable wage growth. Weak productivity, by contrast, constrains supply, making cost shocks more inflationary. Manufacturing deserves closer scrutiny, as its diverse subsectors respond differently to global demand, exchange rate shifts, and investment cycles. Tracking these patterns helps judge whether growth is supported by efficiency gains or reliant on credit and labor cost increases.

Four composite indices — productivity, sales, inventory, and labor demand — are constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to INEGI manufacturing subsector data and GDP sector composition. PCA extracts the dominant co-movement pattern across subsectors, producing standardized indices that summarize broad trends while filtering out subsector-specific noise. The productivity index draws on output-per-worker measures across manufacturing branches; the sales, inventory, and labor demand indices use INEGI's corresponding survey-based indicators supplemented by GDP sector weights.

Key Takeaways

• News-based policy uncertainty in July 2026 stands at 18.34% of articles tagged policy-uncertain.
• By category, the latest data indicates that trade policy is the most significant driver of recent uncertainty.
• Compared with the officially published BBD index, the news-derived measure shows a similar downward trajectory.

News-based policy uncertainty in July 2026 stands at 18.34% of articles tagged policy-uncertain. Mexican news coverage of policy uncertainty reveals a significant level, with 18.34% of articles reflecting this theme, marking a decline from the previous three-month average of 20.0%. Over the past year, however, this metric has risen by 2.9%, indicating a persistent elevation in concerns surrounding economic policy. The most recent month shows a modest decline of 1.7%, suggesting a slight easing in the immediate perception of uncertainty.

By category, the latest data indicates that trade policy is the most significant driver of recent uncertainty. Within the uncertainty narrative, trade policy has emerged as the single largest mover over the last three months, increasing by 2.1 percentage points to 9.43%. Additionally, the labor market and regulation categories have also contributed to the composition of uncertainty coverage, albeit to a lesser extent. This highlights a growing concern among stakeholders regarding the implications of trade dynamics on economic stability.

Compared with the officially published BBD index, the news-derived measure shows a similar downward trajectory. Against the Baker-Bloom-Davis benchmark, which reported a reading of 149.8 for June 2026, both indices reflect a notable decline in policy uncertainty over the past three months. The alignment of these measures reinforces the narrative that while concerns persist, there is a trend towards reduced uncertainty in the short term. This convergence may provide policymakers with a more favorable context for decision-making in the coming months.

The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index tracks the share of Mexican news articles whose text matches terms spanning three categories — the economy, uncertainty, and policy — scraped daily from five major outlets since 2015 and aggregated into daily, weekly, and monthly indices across 15 policy categories (monetary, fiscal, trade, regulation, and more). This news-derived measure is compared against the externally-published Baker-Bloom-Davis (BBD) Mexico EPU index (policyuncertainty.com), the original academic methodology on which this approach is based. Because uncertainty coverage often front-runs formal policy announcements, the index provides an early, text-based signal of shifting attention toward economic policy risk.

Key Takeaways

• The July 2026 SPF survey shows the aggregate Concern Index at 2.79, positioned around the 60th percentile.
• Economists have identified public insecurity, US trade policy, and the lack of structural change as the most pressing growth constraints currently cited.
• The perceived probability of recession among surveyed economists stands at 25.0%, indicating moderate concerns relative to historical norms.
• According to forecasters, the FX forecast misalignment indicates that the peso is perceived as overvalued across multiple horizons.

The July 2026 SPF survey shows the aggregate Concern Index at 2.79, positioned around the 60th percentile. The July 2026 SPF survey shows the aggregate Concern Index at 2.79, positioned around the 60th percentile. This reflects a modest decline of -0.04 compared to the previous month. The sustained downward trend over the past three months indicates a potential easing in economic anxiety, although the index remains higher compared to the same period last year, suggesting lingering concerns within the economic landscape.

Economists have identified public insecurity, US trade policy, and the lack of structural change as the most pressing growth constraints currently cited. The key constraints currently cited include public insecurity at 10.39%, US trade policy at 7.62%, and a lack of structural change at 4.39%. Notably, public insecurity is the single biggest month-over-month mover, having increased by 1.20%. This uptick underscores a persistent challenge that could impact overall economic stability and growth prospects.

The perceived probability of recession among surveyed economists stands at 25.0%, indicating moderate concerns relative to historical norms. The perceived probability of recession currently reflects moderate unease, with a probability of 25.0%, which is positioned at the 76th percentile historically. This suggests a heightened awareness of potential economic downturns compared to previous quarters. Looking ahead, expectations for the next quarter show a slight decline in recession probability to 20.2%, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook among forecasters.

According to forecasters, the FX forecast misalignment indicates that the peso is perceived as overvalued across multiple horizons. FX expectations suggest that forecasters see the peso as overvalued, with a current misalignment of +0.039. This perspective persists across the one- and two-month outlooks, signaling a consistent sentiment regarding the peso's strength. Such assessments may influence monetary policy considerations, particularly in relation to inflation dynamics and currency stability.

Banxico's Survey of Professional Forecasters (Encuesta sobre las Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía del Sector Privado) polls roughly 40 groups of analysts from banks, financial institutions, consultancies, and research centers. Responses are collected during the second half of each reference month — typically between the 15th and 28th — and results are published on the first business day of the following month. Because respondents form their expectations before some end-of-month official data releases, the survey provides an early window into shifting professional sentiment on inflation, growth constraints, recession risk, and exchange rates, making it a valuable leading indicator for policymakers and market participants.

Key Takeaways

• Bond prices as of 2026-08-05 show the 10Y-3Y spread at 1.30%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.14% from the previous observation.
• The curve shape suggests that market participants are anticipating a potential rate cut from Banxico, with a strong probability of a -26 basis point adjustment at the upcoming meeting.

Bond prices as of 2026-08-05 show the 10Y-3Y spread at 1.30%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.14% from the previous observation. The latest yield curve data reveals that the nominal 10Y-3Y spread is at 1.30%, while the real spread stands at 0.65%. Both spreads remain in normal territory, indicating no immediate inversion threat. The breakeven inflation spread, also at 0.65%, suggests that market participants expect inflation to remain subdued, aligning with the easing headline inflation narrative. This combination hints at cautious optimism amid underlying economic uncertainties.

The curve shape suggests that market participants are anticipating a potential rate cut from Banxico, with a strong probability of a -26 basis point adjustment at the upcoming meeting. Markets appear to be pricing in dovish signals, reflecting expectations for monetary easing, even as recent Banxico minutes convey a more cautious stance. This divergence highlights a critical tension: while the market leans toward stimulus to foster growth, policymakers remain wary of external inflationary pressures and domestic economic challenges. How Banxico navigates this landscape will be pivotal for market confidence moving forward.

When investors and businesses trust that monetary policy will remain credible and predictable, long-term interest rates respond more smoothly to central bank signals. Yield curve spreads between long and short maturities serve as a real-time gauge of this alignment: a stable, upward-sloping curve suggests markets expect gradual normalization, while persistent inversions often signal that markets anticipate policy shifts before they are announced. For Mexico, where inflation targeting depends on anchoring expectations across a diverse investor base, the 10-year minus 3-year spread offers a compact summary of whether policy communication is landing as intended.

Yield curve spreads are filtered using a Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Factor Model (NS-DFM) estimated on weekly data. The model ingests 16 synthetic yield curve points — 11 nominal maturities (overnight through 30 years) and 5 real maturities (overnight through 30 years) — fitted via Nelder-Mead optimization on Banxico bond prices. Factor loadings follow the Diebold-Li (2006) Nelson-Siegel parameterization, decomposing each yield curve into level, slope, and curvature components for both real rates and implied inflation. The Kalman smoother extracts filtered spread estimates that track the underlying signal in daily bond market noise.

Key Takeaways

• Banxico's August 2026 credit release shows money market spreads at historic lows, signaling a tightening landscape for funding.
• Household mortgage rates are feeling the heat as costs rise amid tighter financial conditions.
• Debt issuance patterns show a stark preference for fixed-rate financing, suggesting a strategic shift among firms.

Banxico's August 2026 credit release shows money market spreads at historic lows, signaling a tightening landscape for funding. Following the latest August lending data, rate premia have narrowed significantly, with TIIE 28d at 0.27 and TIIE 91d at 0.31. This marks a -0.0585 decline in the spread compared to last month, reflecting a cautious sentiment in the markets. With spreads hovering around the 5th percentile, the implications for borrowing costs are clear: tighter liquidity could stifle lending, impacting growth prospects.

Household mortgage rates are feeling the heat as costs rise amid tighter financial conditions. The total annual cost of mortgages (CAT) averages 13.8%, with a range from 10.7% to 28.2%. As the policy rate dynamics shift, affordability is becoming an increasing concern for prospective homeowners, potentially dampening demand in a market already grappling with economic uncertainties.

Debt issuance patterns show a stark preference for fixed-rate financing, suggesting a strategic shift among firms. Corporate financing is leaning heavily on fixed-rate debt, comprising 19.47% of total issuance, while variable rates make up a smaller share. This shift indicates that firms are hedging against future rate hikes, prioritizing stability amid an unpredictable economic landscape.

Rate premia show how market and bank funding costs move relative to the policy rate, indicating the efficiency of monetary transmission. Household mortgage rates capture the cost of long-term borrowing — their sharp rise in recent years signals affordability pressures and distributional effects, as many families face double-digit costs. Debt issuance patterns, normalized by GDP, reveal how firms finance themselves; the balance between fixed and variable rates matters for vulnerability to policy shifts. Together, these indicators show how policy rates filter into real borrowing conditions, affecting credit demand, investment, and ultimately growth and inflation dynamics.