Stay informed with the latest insights on Mexico's economy via statistics and AI analysis and synthesis.
Updated: 2026-03-05
The article details the Baillères family's journey from selling corn and grains to owning significant assets like Palacio de Hierro and silver mines. It highlights their strategic business decisions and the evolution of their wealth over generations, showcasing their impact on the Mexican economy. — Expansión, 04 Mar 2026. Read more
The Mexican peso showed resilience against the US dollar, closing stronger despite ongoing tensions related to the US-Iran conflict. Analysts noted that the peso's recovery reflects market confidence, even as geopolitical uncertainties persist. The article highlights the peso's performance in the context of these international developments. — El Financiero, 04 Mar 2026. Read more
The OECD reports that ongoing wars and trade tensions are increasing pressure on global debt levels. The organization highlights the need for countries to address these challenges to maintain economic stability. The report emphasizes that these factors are contributing to a complex financial landscape that requires careful management. — El Economista, 04 Mar 2026. Read more
The Mexican peso has stabilized against the dollar following a significant decline driven by concerns over the Middle East. Market analysts noted that the peso's recovery reflects a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, allowing for a more stable exchange rate. The situation remains fluid as investors continue to monitor developments in the region. — El Economista, 04 Mar 2026. Read more
The article discusses warnings regarding the potential impact of ongoing conflicts on global inflation and economic stability. Experts highlight that the war could lead to significant disruptions in supply chains and increased commodity prices, which may exacerbate inflationary pressures worldwide. The implications for economic growth and financial markets are also noted, emphasizing the interconnected nature of global economies. — El Financiero, 04 Mar 2026. Read more
The Mexican peso has recovered ground against the US dollar as the market remains attentive to developments in the Middle East. Analysts are closely monitoring geopolitical events that could impact currency fluctuations. The article highlights the peso's performance without providing specific figures or forecasts. — El Economista, 04 Mar 2026. Read more
The Mexican peso closed at 17.63 units against the dollar, reflecting a decline attributed to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The exchange rate's movement indicates the peso's vulnerability in the face of international tensions. — El Financiero, 03 Mar 2026. Read more
Rising tensions in the Gulf region have led to significant increases in oil and gas prices, prompting global concerns about potential supply shortages. Market analysts are closely monitoring the situation as the risk of disruption grows, impacting energy markets worldwide. — Expansión, 02 Mar 2026. Read more
The article discusses key economic indicators for the week of March 2-6, focusing on remittances, economic expectations, and auto sales. It highlights the importance of these indicators in assessing the current economic landscape in Mexico. Specific figures or forecasts were not provided in the text. — El Economista, 02 Mar 2026. Read more
The article discusses the trend of capital leaving Mexico, highlighting concerns among investors about the country's economic environment. It notes that while some investments continue to flow in, a significant amount is also being withdrawn, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment. The piece emphasizes the need for policy adjustments to retain foreign investment. — El Financiero, 28 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexico's Gas Import Surge Reshapes Energy Security — Google News, 04 Mar 2026. Read more
Wages and productivity in Mexico under USMCA — Google News, 04 Mar 2026. Read more
Mexico at a turning point: How tariff realignment can redefine North American trade — Google News, 04 Mar 2026. Read more
Money in Mexico: Currency, ATMs, and Payment Methods — Google News, 04 Mar 2026. Read more
Monthly central bank policy rate in Mexico 1998-2025 — Google News, 04 Mar 2026. Read more
Mexican Remittances Record First January Decline Since 2015 — Google News, 03 Mar 2026. Read more
Mexico’s GDP Outlook Improves, but Risks Remain — Google News, 03 Mar 2026. Read more
Mexico analysts lift 2026 inflation, economic growth forecasts — Google News, 03 Mar 2026. Read more
Mexico Reaffirms Comprehensive Strategy to Combat Illegal Trade — Google News, 03 Mar 2026. Read more
Opinion - Mexico’s chaos is disrupting North American free trade — Google News, 03 Mar 2026. Read more
Updated: 2026-02-07 by Alexander Dentler
Key Takeaways
Following the December 18, 2025 decision, Banxico's policy rate stands at 7.00%, reflecting a recent cut of 0.25 percentage points. After Banxico's December meeting, the target rate has been held steady at 7.00%, following a cumulative reduction of 0.50 percentage points since the last hike in March 2023. The recent cut represents a strategic response to evolving economic conditions, characterized by lingering uncertainties surrounding both domestic and external factors. As Banxico prepares for its next meeting in 47 days, the focus remains on adapting to the shifting landscape of economic pressures and inflationary expectations.
The Fed's target rate currently stands at 3.62%, following a similar cut of 0.25 percentage points in December. Relative to the United States, Banxico's more aggressive rate stance reflects a proactive approach to managing inflation and economic stability amidst heightened global economic uncertainties. The recent coordination in rate cuts illustrates a shared concern over external economic conditions, yet the substantial rate differential signals diverging monetary policy paths. This dynamic places Banxico in a unique position to leverage policy tools more autonomously, especially as it navigates domestic challenges.
The rate differential is likely to influence capital flows and currency stability in the region. For markets, the significant rate differential could enhance Mexico's appeal to investors, potentially supporting capital inflows. Nonetheless, the heightened concerns surrounding rule of law and security suggest that such advantages may be offset by risks that could deter long-term investment. As Banxico maneuvers through these complexities, the interplay between rate policy and economic fundamentals will remain critical.
The central bank's policy rate is the primary tool for steering inflation and economic activity. Banxico targets 3% annual inflation and adjusts its overnight interbank rate to influence borrowing costs throughout the economy. The rate differential with the United States affects capital flows and exchange rate dynamics — a wider spread can attract foreign investment but may constrain domestic credit. Policy decisions are announced roughly every six weeks following scheduled monetary policy meetings.
Updated: 2026-03-05 by Ignacio Crane
With recent updates to inflation metrics and economic policy uncertainty indicators, our model-based expectations suggest a cautious approach from Banxico ahead of the February 5 decision date. The current probabilities indicate a substantial chance of no action, with a hold probability of approximately 58%, while the expected change stands at an average reduction of about 11 basis points. This represents a material shift from previous expectations, as the modal bucket has moved to ±0bp, with the -25bp option also remaining significant at 38.9%. The model points toward likely inaction as the most probable outcome, given the prevailing economic conditions. The shift in modal bin reflects a growing consensus among market participants on the potential for stabilization in the face of ongoing uncertainties. As we approach the decision date, the focus will undoubtedly turn to how Banxico balances immediate economic concerns with structural challenges.
Since our last update, key drivers such as consumer price index (CPI) data and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) have been refreshed, revealing a modest deceleration in inflation trends. The latest CPI figures suggest a slight easing, while economic policy uncertainty continues to loom large in the backdrop, influencing market sentiment. These developments signal a nuanced picture for Banxico, where the interplay of inflation and uncertainty remains critical. The CPI's downward movement offers a dovish pull, while persistent economic policy uncertainty continues to exert moderate hawkish pressure. Together, these elements create a delicate balance for the committee to navigate in their decision-making process.
The primary drivers influencing this outlook reveal a complex interplay of factors, with inflation trends exerting a slight dovish influence while economic policy uncertainty poses a significant risk. The ongoing concerns surrounding public security and structural deficiencies in the economy further complicate the decision landscape. As such, while our model highlights the importance of these drivers, the ultimate decision will ultimately rest on the committee's judgment and its assessment of the broader economic environment. In this context, economic activity indicators and the trajectory of inflation will be paramount in shaping Banxico's policy direction. The committee will need to weigh the benefits of monetary easing against potential risks to stability, particularly in light of current public discourse surrounding economic policy.
Ordered Probit Probabilities
| Rate Change | 04 Feb | 05 Feb 2026 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut | 58.4% | 42.0% | -16.4 |
| Hold | 41.6% | 58.0% | +16.4 |
| Hike | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0 |
| E[Δrate] | -17.5 bp | -11.3 bp | +6.2 bp |
Probabilities in %. Modal bin in bold. E[Δrate] = probability-weighted expected change in basis points.
When markets and the public can anticipate how and why the central bank acts, uncertainty falls and policy becomes more effective. Clear communication helps businesses plan investments, households make borrowing decisions, and international investors gauge currency risks. Economists often stress the importance of clarity and traceability — the ability to follow and understand decisions step by step. Without it, rate moves risk being misread, causing volatility instead of stability. With it, policy signals are more credible, anchoring expectations and strengthening the central bank's influence.
Rate-change probabilities are estimated using an ordered probit model with eight macroeconomic and financial drivers: consumer price inflation (CPI), consumer confidence, the 30-day peso/dollar change, the CETES 28-day spread, stock market growth, the yield curve slope (10Y minus 2Y), Mexico's Economic Policy Uncertainty index, and the Fed-Banxico rate differential. The model maps these drivers into probability bins for the next monetary policy decision, ranging from cuts of 50 basis points or more to hikes of the same magnitude. Coefficients are estimated on the historical record of Banxico decisions and their pre-decision data environment. Probabilities update daily as driver series refresh and should be treated as one input among many.
Out-of-sample backtest across 24 past meetings: the modal prediction matched the actual decision 46% of the time, directional accuracy (hike/hold/cut) was 67%, Brier score 0.720. Out-of-sample backtest across 24 past meetings: the modal prediction matched the actual decision 46% of the time, directional accuracy (hike/hold/cut) was 67%, Brier score 0.720. Lower Brier scores indicate better-calibrated probability forecasts.
Updated: 2026-03-04 by Ignacio Crane
Key Takeaways
Bond prices as of 2026-03-04 show the 10Y-3Y spread at 1.46%, reflecting a modest increase of 0.13% from the previous observation. The latest yield curve data reveals a nominal spread of 1.46%, up from the prior observation, reflecting a shift that emphasizes the market's consideration of future economic conditions. The real spread has similarly increased, indicating a slight uptick in real yield expectations. The breakeven inflation spread, while still positive, points to a cautious outlook among investors regarding inflation, which may be influenced by ongoing global economic developments and domestic policy uncertainties.
The curve shape suggests that market participants are pricing in potential rate cuts from Banxico, aligning with the anticipated policy adjustments discussed in recent committee meetings. Markets appear to be pricing in an approximately even chance of a rate reduction, indicative of an environment where economic policy uncertainty prevails. The curve’s current shape reflects this sentiment, as it anticipates a potential easing while remaining cognizant of the structural deficiencies that could impede growth. As such, Banxico's navigation of these complexities will be essential for maintaining market confidence and ensuring economic stability.
Yield Spread Update
| Spread (10Y−3Y) | 02 Mar | 03 Mar 2026 | Δ | NS-DFM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | 1.56 | 1.46 | -0.096 | 1.23 |
| Real | 0.56 | 0.62 | +0.062 | 0.94 |
| Inflation | 1.00 | 0.84 | -0.158 | 0.29 |
All values in percentage points. NS-DFM = Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Factor Model filtered estimate.
When investors and businesses trust that monetary policy will remain credible and predictable, long-term interest rates respond more smoothly to central bank signals. Yield curve spreads between long and short maturities serve as a real-time gauge of this alignment: a stable, upward-sloping curve suggests markets expect gradual normalization, while persistent inversions often signal that markets anticipate policy shifts before they are announced. For Mexico, where inflation targeting depends on anchoring expectations across a diverse investor base, the 10-year minus 3-year spread offers a compact summary of whether policy communication is landing as intended.
Yield curve spreads are filtered using a Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Factor Model (NS-DFM) estimated on weekly data. The model ingests 16 synthetic yield curve points — 11 nominal maturities (overnight through 30 years) and 5 real maturities (overnight through 30 years) — fitted via Nelder-Mead optimization on Banxico bond prices. Factor loadings follow the Diebold-Li (2006) Nelson-Siegel parameterization, decomposing each yield curve into level, slope, and curvature components for both real rates and implied inflation. The Kalman smoother extracts filtered spread estimates that track the underlying signal in daily bond market noise.
So…what is this—and why am I doing it?
This project began with a simple question in 2021: how much of the work of producing useful economic information can we hand over to machines? Monitoring Monetary Policy in Mexico is a thought experiment at that frontier. By combining statistical analysis, tailored visualizations, and large language models, it demonstrates how even highly specialized topics—such as Mexican monetary policy—can be made more accessible, relevant, and insightful. Meanwhile, the system is designed to run without human intervention on a daily basis. My role is to set the design; the automation carries it out.
When does data stop being a dump and start being a story?
The initiative builds on my earlier Monitoring Mexico project but has since evolved in important ways. Data is no longer simply displayed; it is analyzed, distilled, forecasted, visualized, interpreted, narrated, and contextualized. Large language models help transform both raw and modeled data into context, turning numbers into stories. In short, raw information is transformed into understanding.
Who’s in charge here—a Raspberry Pi or common sense?
Behind the scenes, the site runs on a Raspberry Pi 5 powered by Python and a library of custom routines. Automation drives much of the process, but human expertise remains essential in designing the explanation and presenting the material. The balance between machine efficiency and human judgment is what makes the project work.
How do we cut through the jargon and keep the signal?
The aim is straightforward: to bring clarity to an area often obscured by technical detail. Monetary policy shapes households, firms, and markets, yet its analysis usually remains confined to experts. By filtering, explaining, and visualizing the data, this project seeks to make that knowledge more transparent and more useful.
Is this the 80/20 rule you learn in business school in the wild?
At its core, the site is both a contribution to public understanding and an exploration of how informational value is created. It is a humble attempt to deliver 80% of the insights of a central bank analysis with 20% of the resources—while also testing what the future of knowledge generation might look like.
What might be new the next time you drop by?
This is very much a work in progress, with new features, analyses, and visualizations added over time. We can now at the brink of generating our very own economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, and we consider a newsletter. But maybe a chatbot might be more appropriate? Coming back to check for updates is always a good idea. If the site sparks curiosity, fosters dialogue, or simply helps illuminate Mexico’s economic dynamics, it has achieved its goal.
Updated: 2026-03-05 by Ignacio Crane
Key Takeaways
The early-March 2026 CPI release shows headline inflation at 3.89%, comfortably within Banxico's 2%-4% target band. The early-March 2026 CPI release shows headline inflation at 3.89%, placing it at the 42nd percentile of historical data. This represents a modest increase of 0.04 from the prior release, indicating a gradual upward trend. While the current rate remains within the target band, the slight uptick may amplify discussions within the Banco de México regarding the adequacy of monetary policy in the face of evolving economic conditions.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, stands at 4.55%, suggesting underlying inflationary pressures are more pronounced than headline figures indicate. Core inflation, which excludes volatile components, is currently at 4.55%, situated in the 77th percentile historically. This reflects a slight decrease of 0.02 from the previous month, indicating a divergence from headline inflation which has seen an increase. The fact that core inflation remains above the 3% target suggests persistent underlying pressures that could necessitate a careful approach from Banxico as it navigates its policy options.
Trade prices reflect significant upward momentum, particularly in export prices, which could have broader implications for domestic inflation dynamics. Trade prices have shown notable changes, with export prices increasing to 7.05%, while import prices are relatively subdued at 2.30%. The substantial rise in export prices, which is the largest mover, underscores a potential demand-driven inflationary influence that could filter through to domestic prices. This trend may prompt policymakers to reassess the interplay between global market conditions and domestic inflation as they consider future monetary policy adjustments.
| 1H Feb 2026 | 1H Feb 2027 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Series | Current | Prev. Fcast | Error | 12M Fcast | Prev. 12M | Rev. |
| Headline CPI | 3.9 | — | — | 4.3 | 4.3 | +0.00 |
| Core CPI | 4.6 | — | — | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.00 |
| Export Price Index | — | — | — | 3.8 | 3.8 | +0.00 |
| Import Price Index | — | — | — | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.00 |
All values in percentage points (YoY, seasonally adjusted). "Error" = actual minus previous forecast. "Revision" = change in 12-month outlook since last update. "—" = no prior forecast available.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the cost of a representative basket of goods and services purchased by Mexican households. Banxico targets 3% annual inflation with a tolerance band of 2%-4%. Core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — reveals underlying inflation trends that guide monetary policy. Import and export price indices extend the picture by linking Mexico's inflation dynamics to global markets, trade flows, and currency movements.
Headline CPI, core CPI, export prices, and import prices are projected six months ahead using a Vector Autoregression (VAR). The four series are estimated jointly, so each informs the others' forecasts through lagged interactions. Projections update each time new CPI data arrive and may shift materially after revisions.
Out-of-sample backtest over 62 evaluation windows using the Vector Autoregression (VAR). Out-of-sample backtest over 62 evaluation windows using the Vector Autoregression (VAR). RMSE measures the typical forecast error in the same units as the series; 'naive' is a no-change benchmark. Headline CPI (RMSE 1.15 vs 1.08 naive, n=62); Core CPI (RMSE 0.67 vs 1.13 naive, +40% improvement, n=62); Export Price Inflation (RMSE 7.27 vs 7.77 naive, +6% improvement, n=56); Import Price Inflation (RMSE 2.99 vs 2.05 naive, n=56).
Updated: 2026-02-06 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
The latest SHF House Price Index for Q3 2025 reveals a YoY inflation rate of 8.86%, which is about as spicy as a taco on a hot summer day. This inflation rate, reported on July 1, 2025, is comfortably above the historical average, strutting in at the 79th percentile since 2006. In the same breath, house price inflation is outpacing both the headline CPI at 3.69% and the housing CPI at 3.35%, creating a premium of over 5 percentage points in each case. Meanwhile, the DFM nowcast suggests a slight divergence from this observed rate, but let's not throw a piñata just yet; we’ll dig into that shortly.
Now, let’s unravel the mystery of the DFM nowcast, which brings some intriguing twists to our house price saga. The DFM nowcast, standing at 7.29% as of January 1, 2026, is lower than the observed 8.86%, indicating that the model detects downward pressure from auxiliary indicators like mortgage lending and CPI housing. This suggests that while house prices have been on a rollercoaster of inflation, the underlying trend is showing signs of mean reversion or cooling off, which could have implications for those still clinging to the idea of a housing bonanza. In short, the DFM is waving a caution flag, reminding us that even the hottest markets can cool down faster than a soggy tortilla.
Housing is a major household asset and a key store of wealth. Rising prices can lift balance sheets and collateral values, while falling prices can weaken credit conditions and confidence. Housing costs also shape the cost of living and affordability, making house price inflation relevant for both growth and distributional pressures in Mexico.
Updated: 2026-01-23
Key Takeaways
Brent oil prices through December 2025 reveal a disconcerting tale, settling at $61.81, a staggering 15.6% decline year-over-year. Brent oil prices through December 2025 reveal a disconcerting tale, settling at $61.81, a staggering 15.6% decline year-over-year. This downward trajectory, exacerbated by global supply chain disruptions and fluctuating demand, has cast a pall over Mexico's federal revenues, which hinge significantly on oil exports. With a three-day streak of decline, the implications for Pemex and the Campeche regional economy are as clear as a foggy morning: uncertainty looms large.
Copper, on the other hand, shines like a beacon, currently priced at $11,790.96 and boasting a robust 32.3% increase over the past year. Copper, on the other hand, shines like a beacon, currently priced at $11,790.96 and boasting a robust 32.3% increase over the past year. This metal's recent upward momentum—evident in a 9.1% monthly increase—reflects a burgeoning demand from the tech sector and a resurgence in global infrastructure projects. For Mexico's mining sector, particularly in Sonora, this trend offers a silver lining amidst the otherwise turbulent commodity seas.
Corn prices are on a modest ascent, currently at $205.32, with a year-over-year rise of 1.2%. Corn prices are on a modest ascent, currently at $205.32, with a year-over-year rise of 1.2%. This gentle rise, marked by a 1.8% increase in the last month, paints a picture of stability in an otherwise volatile agricultural landscape. For Mexico's 1.5 million smallholder farmers, this incremental growth brings hope, but the specter of food price inflation still lurks in the shadows.
Commodity prices feed directly into Mexico's inflation pulse and terms of trade. Oil and corn affect energy and food costs, while copper is a proxy for global industrial demand. For policymakers, sharp commodity swings can shift inflation expectations and fiscal balances, making these prices critical to monitor.
Updated: 2026-02-17 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
The January 2026 IMSS release shows unit labor costs at 3.12%, indicating wages are outpacing productivity. Following January's formal sector wage data, ULC in manufacturing is rising, with a MoM decrease of 0.32 percentage points. This uptick signifies that wages are growing faster than productivity, which could stir the pot for cost-push inflation pressures down the line. At the 72nd percentile, this trend raises eyebrows about competitiveness and cost management in the sector.
Real wages in the formal sector are showing signs of improvement, with manufacturing workers enjoying a robust increase in purchasing power. With real wage growth at 5.61%, households in manufacturing are experiencing tangible benefits, as their purchasing power is on the rise. This positive shift, marked by a 1.54% MoM increase, suggests that workers are gaining ground against the rising costs of living, providing a much-needed cushion in uncertain economic times.
Across sectors, manufacturing is pulling ahead of retail when it comes to real wage dynamics. Manufacturing is outperforming retail, with real wages rising significantly while retail workers are facing a decline in purchasing power, currently at just 1.52%. This divergence highlights a troubling trend in the retail sector, where real wages have been stagnant, potentially leading to increased financial strain for households reliant on this sector.
Unit labor costs (ULC) measure the average cost of labor per unit of output — when wages grow faster than productivity, ULC rises, potentially squeezing profit margins and fueling inflation. In Mexico, where the formal sector employs roughly half the workforce, IMSS-registered wage data captures trends in the formal economy but misses the informal sector's dynamics. Real wages — nominal wages adjusted for inflation — determine household purchasing power and underpin consumer demand. For policymakers, these indicators help balance inflation control, competitiveness, and the economic welfare of Mexican workers.
Updated: 2026-02-25 by María López
Key Takeaways
Following the latest quarterly GDP release from INEGI, real GDP growth in Mexico stands at a stable 2.31%, unchanged from previous estimates. The nowcast estimate, updated with the new data release, shows that despite the economic policy uncertainty and external challenges, the GDP remains resilient, signaling a steady economic environment. This stability suggests that the fundamentals of the economy are holding firm, even amidst a landscape of mixed signals. Market participants will be keenly watching how future data might influence this trajectory.
Private consumption is estimated at 2.85%, reflecting a solid contribution to overall economic activity. Household spending continues to support growth, indicating that consumer confidence remains relatively intact despite external pressures. This robust consumption trend is a positive signal for future economic dynamics, suggesting that domestic demand may help buffer against global uncertainties.
Exports are projected to grow at 5.21%, indicating a healthy external demand environment. This growth in exports suggests that Mexico’s manufacturing sector is effectively capitalizing on opportunities in key markets, particularly the United States. A strong export performance is crucial for maintaining competitive advantage and fostering economic resilience in the face of potential trade disruptions.
Imports are currently estimated to rise by 5.37%, reflecting robust domestic demand. This increase in imports signals that consumer and business confidence is driving higher demand for goods and services, which is essential for maintaining economic momentum. It also underscores that while external demand is healthy, domestic absorption is equally significant in supporting growth.
Net trade's contribution remains neutral as both imports and exports grow in tandem. This dynamic suggests a balanced trade environment, where the increase in imports does not overshadow export gains. The stability in net trade helps reinforce the overall economic outlook, as both sides of the trade equation are aligned in their growth trajectories.
DFM GDP Nowcasts
| Component | Last Observed | Nowcast | Prev. Nowcast | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Gross Domestic Product | 1.07% | 2.31% | 2.31% | +0.00 |
| Private Consumption | 1.98% | 2.85% | 2.85% | +0.00 |
| Imports | 17.42% | 5.37% | 5.37% | +0.00 |
| Exports | 5.21% | 5.21% | 5.21% | +0.00 |
QoQ annualized, seasonally adjusted. Nowcast = DFM filtered estimate using higher-frequency inputs. "Revision" = change from previous run.
Real activity data tracks the economy's engine — output, spending, and trade — while nowcasts bridge the lag between releases. Real GDP captures total production; private consumption reflects household demand; exports and imports reveal external demand and the flow of inputs for Mexico's trade-exposed, manufacturing-heavy economy. Shifts in U.S. demand, global prices, and the peso often show up first in trade, then filter into GDP and consumption. Because official series arrive with delays and revisions, model-based nowcasts provide an early, probabilistic read for policy timing — useful if treated with uncertainty bands and cross-checked against higher-frequency signals.
A Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) nowcasts quarterly GDP and its demand components — private consumption, imports, and exports — using 14 higher-frequency inputs. These include monthly employment indicators, industrial production (IGAE), consumer confidence, capacity utilization, retail sales, and private consumption, plus quarterly GDP sector breakdowns. The model extracts common factors via the Kalman filter, updating the nowcast each time any input series receives new data. Nowcast estimates are conditional expectations that narrow as more data arrive within each quarter.
Out-of-sample backtest over 12 evaluation windows using the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). Out-of-sample backtest over 12 evaluation windows using the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). RMSE measures the typical forecast error in the same units as the series; 'naive' is a no-change benchmark. Real GDP (RMSE 3.90 vs 3.82 naive, n=12); Private Consumption (RMSE 5.41 vs 2.51 naive, n=12); Exports (RMSE 22.26 vs 18.28 naive, n=12); Imports (RMSE 11.34 vs 17.09 naive, +34% improvement, n=12).
Updated: 2026-02-25 by María López
Key Takeaways
The latest ENOE survey shows unemployment at a historic low, yet underemployment takes a concerning turn. The February 2026 ENOE survey shows unemployment at 3.44%, maintaining its position near the 1st percentile of historical data. This stability, however, belies a troubling rise in underemployment, which has recently advanced to 10.42%, reflecting a slight uptick from the previous reporting period. The underlying trend indicates that while unemployment remains low, the quality of jobs may be deteriorating, prompting concerns about the overall health of the labor market.
By gender, a nuanced picture emerges, revealing disparities that raise eyebrows. Male and female unemployment rates are currently reported at 3.35% and 3.54%, respectively. While both genders exhibit low unemployment levels, the marginal increase in female unemployment signals potential vulnerabilities in sectors typically dominated by women, suggesting a need for targeted policy interventions to address these disparities.
The share of informal workers is on the rise, presenting a dual-edged sword for the labor market. Informal employment has surged to 54.43%, indicating a troubling trend where more individuals are engaging in jobs without formal protections or benefits. This increase not only underscores the precariousness of many workers' situations but also highlights broader structural issues in the economy that could hinder sustainable growth and labor rights advancements.
DFM Employment Nowcasts
| Indicator | Last Observed | Nowcast | Prev. Nowcast | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 2.58% | 3.44% | — | — |
| Underemployment Rate | 10.42% | 12.34% | — | — |
| Male Unemployment | 2.50% | 3.35% | — | — |
| Female Unemployment | 2.61% | 3.54% | — | — |
Observed = latest quarterly ENOE value. Nowcast = DFM filtered estimate using monthly auxiliary data. "Revision" = change from previous run.
Labor slack and its composition shape inflation pressure, policy timing, and social risk. Unemployment, underemployment, and unemployment by gender reveal how broad and uneven slack is. In Mexico's large informal sector, the informal employment share can swing sharply — often contracting faster in downturns as unprotected jobs are cut first, then rebounding early — masking true slack if headline unemployment alone is tracked. Tracking these dimensions helps distinguish cyclical slack from structural mismatches and calibrate monetary policy accordingly.
Between quarterly ENOE survey releases, a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) nowcasts employment indicators using higher-frequency auxiliary data. The model ingests monthly series — industrial production, consumer confidence, capacity utilization, retail sales, and private consumption — alongside quarterly GDP components to extract common factors that track the business cycle. When any auxiliary series receives new data, the Kalman filter updates the nowcast, providing an early signal before the next official employment release.
Out-of-sample backtest over 15 evaluation windows using the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). Out-of-sample backtest over 15 evaluation windows using the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). RMSE measures the typical forecast error in the same units as the series; 'naive' is a no-change benchmark. Unemployment (RMSE 0.33 vs 0.11 naive, n=12); Underemployment (RMSE 1.25 vs 0.49 naive, n=10); Male Unemployment (RMSE 0.27 vs 0.25 naive, n=10); Female Unemployment (RMSE 0.27 vs 0.27 naive, +0% improvement, n=10).
Updated: 2026-02-12 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
INEGI's Q4 2025 productivity release shows secondary sector output at 102, continuing its recent upward trend. The latest INEGI productivity data for Q4 2025, released in December, indicates that the secondary sector productivity index is at 102, reflecting a 3-month upward streak. This growth is largely driven by construction, which has soared to an impressive 106, while mining continues to lag behind at a mere 89.8. Notably, this growth seems to be more concentrated in construction rather than being broad-based across all industries, hinting that while some sectors are thriving, others are still digging themselves out of a hole.
Across the PCA indices, manufacturing composites show a concerning divergence in performance. The composite indices reveal a mixed bag: while productivity is at a modest 0.281, sales have been robust, rising to 0.61, suggesting that demand is still alive and kicking. However, labor demand is on a downward trajectory at -1.49, raising eyebrows about the sustainability of this growth. This divergence between sales and labor demand could signal future challenges—because let’s face it, if the demand is there but the workforce isn’t, we might just be throwing a party with no one to serve the drinks.
Within manufacturing, the top-performing subsectors shine a spotlight on food production, while transport equipment remains in the dumps. The top-performing subsectors include food, which is cruising at 111, a solid indicator of consumer demand, while transport equipment languishes at a dismal 82, reflecting ongoing struggles in that area. Given that food accounts for 18.86% of total manufacturing, its strong performance is undoubtedly propping up the overall figures. Meanwhile, the stark contrast with transport equipment underscores the uneven recovery within the manufacturing landscape—it's like a feast where some are dining lavishly while others are still waiting for their plates.
Productivity trends reveal the economy's capacity to grow without stoking inflation. In Mexico, productivity in the secondary sector — mining, energy, construction, and especially manufacturing — signals how efficiently output expands relative to inputs. Strong productivity gains mean firms can meet demand without raising prices, easing inflation pressure and supporting sustainable wage growth. Weak productivity, by contrast, constrains supply, making cost shocks more inflationary. Manufacturing deserves closer scrutiny, as its diverse subsectors respond differently to global demand, exchange rate shifts, and investment cycles. Tracking these patterns helps judge whether growth is supported by efficiency gains or reliant on credit and labor cost increases.
Updated: 2026-02-06 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
The January 2026 consumer confidence survey shows the general index at 1.15, reflecting a slight dip in sentiment as worries about rule of law and security continue to cast a long shadow. INEGI's latest January release reveals confidence at the 87th percentile, indicating that while consumers are generally optimistic, they are feeling the pinch as the index fell by 0.123 points from the previous month. The most striking divergence comes from the durables-specific index, which remains a robust 2.11 and suggests that consumers are still keen to splurge on big-ticket items, even as confidence in general stability wanes. This discrepancy hints at a complex consumer psyche that’s eager to buy but wary of the broader economic landscape.
Consumer confidence surveys gauge how secure households feel about their income and the economy. The general confidence index reflects overall sentiment, while sector-specific measures — such as willingness to purchase durables or housing — reveal spending appetite in categories most sensitive to interest rates. Stronger confidence supports consumption and can add inflationary pressure; weaker confidence signals caution and potential slack. For monetary policy, these indicators help anticipate whether rate moves are restraining or stimulating household demand.
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Updated: 2026-03-04 by Ignacio Crane
Key Takeaways
The February 2026 SPF survey reveals a modest decline in economic sentiment. The February 2026 SPF survey shows the aggregate Concern Index at 2.82, placing it around the 62nd percentile. This marks a slight decrease of 0.01 from the previous month, reflecting a continued trend of concern that has now persisted for three months. The implications of this decline suggest that while sentiment remains relatively elevated, there is a cautious outlook among economists regarding the immediate economic landscape.
The evolving landscape of economic constraints highlights significant concerns for policymakers. Economists have identified public insecurity as the foremost constraint, comprising 11.23% of the responses, followed closely by US trade policy at 7.64% and a lack of structural change at 4.40%. Notably, public insecurity has increased by 1.16% month-over-month, underscoring the growing anxiety surrounding safety and stability. Such persistent concerns signal potential challenges for both domestic and foreign investment confidence.
Recession concerns are currently perceived to be moderate among economists. The perceived probability of recession stands at 25.0% for the current quarter, positioning it in the 75th percentile historically, suggesting elevated concern relative to past norms. This moderate level reflects a cautious sentiment, as expectations for the next quarter indicate a slight decline to 20.0%. These figures may indicate a stabilizing economic outlook but also highlight the need for vigilance in monitoring underlying risks.
Current FX expectations indicate that forecasters see the peso as overvalued against the dollar. According to forecasters, the current month's misalignment shows the peso perceived as overvalued by 0.157, a signal of potential weakness in the currency relative to expectations. This sentiment persists across shorter-term forecasts, suggesting a consistent view of the peso's valuation over the coming months. Such perceptions could have implications for trade and investment flows, further complicating the economic landscape.
Banxico's Survey of Professional Forecasters (Encuesta sobre las Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía del Sector Privado) polls roughly 40 groups of analysts from banks, financial institutions, consultancies, and research centers. Responses are collected during the second half of each reference month — typically between the 15th and 28th — and results are published on the first business day of the following month. Because respondents form their expectations before some end-of-month official data releases, the survey provides an early window into shifting professional sentiment on inflation, growth constraints, recession risk, and exchange rates, making it a valuable leading indicator for policymakers and market participants.
Updated: 2026-03-04 by Ignacio Crane
Key Takeaways
Mexican equity markets as of March 4, 2026, show excess returns at 0.0408, reflecting a modest increase amidst prevailing uncertainties. With data through March 4, 2026, Mexican equity markets exhibit excess returns at 0.0408, while realized volatility has registered at 0.0088. Notably, the illiquidity measure, as gauged by the Amihud index, has risen to 137.45, underscoring a tightening financial environment. This uptick in illiquidity, alongside the recent fluctuations in the MXN/USD exchange rate, indicates a potential shift in market dynamics that may warrant closer scrutiny.
The decomposition shows that recent volatility has been driven primarily by US Policy Shocks and ongoing economic uncertainty. Recent volatility has been driven by persistent contributions from US Policy Shocks and a backdrop of economic uncertainty. These factors have exerted significant influence, particularly as market participants digest the implications of fluctuating monetary policies. Notably, while the recent uptick in illiquidity suggests tightening conditions, the overall volatility landscape remains intricate, influenced by both domestic and foreign drivers.
Investor sentiment surrounding economic policy uncertainty remains elevated, with alarmist discussions dominating recent discourse. Investor sentiment, as reflected in the AAII and EPU levels, indicates a prevailing atmosphere of caution amidst rising economic policy uncertainty. The recent emphasis on public security issues has further compounded concerns, leading to a heightened awareness of potential risks. This environment necessitates vigilant monitoring, as the interplay between sentiment and economic stability could significantly influence market trajectories moving forward.
Volatility Measures
| Measure | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Δ | Top Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excess Return | 0.2614 | -2.1508 | -2.4122 | US Policy Shocks (+0.145) |
| Realized Volatility | 0.0096 | 0.0204 | +0.0108 | Uncertainty (-0.001) |
| Illiquidity (Amihud) | 88.4113 | 184.3386 | +95.9273 | Uncertainty (-10.817) |
Monthly averages. Top Driver = largest OLS category contribution to latest value.
Financial market returns, volatility, and liquidity signal investor sentiment and risk appetite. Excess returns over government bonds capture the risk premium investors demand for holding equities; wider spreads suggest higher perceived risk or stronger growth prospects. Realized volatility in a stock market index reflects uncertainty — sharp swings indicate fragile sentiment and raise the cost of capital. Illiquidity shows how trading volume and price impact interact: when liquidity dries up, small trades can move prices disproportionately, amplifying shocks. For monetary policy, these indicators matter because they shape funding costs, investment flows, and the broader transmission of rate decisions into financial conditions.
Volatility drivers are analyzed in two steps. First, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) groups the six SPF concern categories and investor sentiment indicators (AAII bull-bear spread, NAAIM exposure index) into thematic driver clusters that capture common variation. Second, an OLS regression decomposes recent volatility movements into contributions from each driver cluster, quantifying how much of the observed excess return and realized volatility is attributable to policy uncertainty, external sentiment, and domestic macro conditions. The decomposition is descriptive — it identifies contemporaneous associations, not causal effects.
Updated: 2026-03-04 by Ignacio Crane
Key Takeaways
Banxico's March 2026 credit release shows money market spreads tightening amid shifting economic conditions. Following the latest March lending data, rate premia reflect a narrowing trend, with TIIE spreads now at 0.35% for the 28-day rate and 0.39% for the 91-day rate, both indicating a modest deceleration in funding costs. The latest revision has seen the bank funding rate adjust down to 0.04%, reinforcing the overall tightening dynamic. This tightening is significant as it suggests a more cautious lending environment, likely influenced by uncertainties in economic policy and inflationary pressures.
Household mortgage rates continue to present affordability challenges for borrowers. The total annual cost of mortgages (CAT) averages at 13.9%, with a range spanning from a minimum of 11.1% to a maximum of 28.2%. This relatively high average underscores the limited pass-through of the policy rate to consumer financing, indicating that potential homebuyers may face increased financial strain in a context of elevated costs. As such, the implications for housing demand could be pronounced if these rates persist.
Debt issuance patterns reveal a preference for fixed-rate financing among corporations. Corporate financing shows a pronounced tilt toward fixed-rate debt, which comprises 18.31% of issuance, compared to just 9.89% for variable, inflation-linked instruments. This shift suggests that firms are opting for stability in a volatile economic landscape, likely in anticipation of future rate movements and inflationary trends. Consequently, this preference could have ramifications for overall market liquidity and financial flexibility.
Rate premia show how market and bank funding costs move relative to the policy rate, indicating the efficiency of monetary transmission. Household mortgage rates capture the cost of long-term borrowing — their sharp rise in recent years signals affordability pressures and distributional effects, as many families face double-digit costs. Debt issuance patterns, normalized by GDP, reveal how firms finance themselves; the balance between fixed and variable rates matters for vulnerability to policy shifts. Together, these indicators show how policy rates filter into real borrowing conditions, affecting credit demand, investment, and ultimately growth and inflation dynamics.
