Stay informed with the latest insights on Mexico's economy via statistics and AI analysis and synthesis.
Updated: 2026-02-06
The article discusses the current strength of the Mexican peso, highlighting its resilience despite various economic pressures. It notes that the peso has shown stability against the US dollar, attributed to factors such as remittances and foreign investment. However, it also emphasizes the challenges posed by inflation and global economic conditions. — El Financiero, 06 Feb 2026. Read more
The European Union is expediting the modernization of its trade agreement with Mexico as part of its commercial reorganization. This initiative aims to enhance economic ties and adapt to changing global trade dynamics. The move reflects the EU's commitment to strengthening its partnerships with key trading partners. — Expansión, 06 Feb 2026. Read more
As the World Cup approaches, a report reveals that 30% of microbusinesses in Mexico still do not utilize digital payment methods. This lack of adoption poses challenges for these businesses, especially during a major event that typically boosts economic activity. The findings highlight the ongoing need for financial inclusion initiatives in the country. — Expansión, 06 Feb 2026. Read more
Banxico, under Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, has decided to pause its cycle of interest rate cuts due to rising inflation expectations. The central bank's decision reflects concerns over the economic outlook and the potential impact on price stability. — El Financiero, 06 Feb 2026. Read more
The article discusses unexpected positive economic indicators at the beginning of the year. It highlights improvements in various sectors, contributing to a more optimistic outlook for the economy. Key figures and statements from economic experts emphasize the significance of these developments. — El Financiero, 06 Feb 2026. Read more
The article discusses Nu's decision to maintain its yield rate, raising questions about the attractiveness of investing in the institution. Analysts are evaluating whether the current yield is sufficient to entice new investors, given the competitive financial landscape. The article highlights the importance of assessing risk versus return in light of Nu's recent performance. — El Economista, 05 Feb 2026. Read more
Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior has announced a new strategic plan aimed at enhancing its role in supporting Mexican exports. The bank's leadership emphasized the importance of adapting to global market changes and fostering innovation in financing solutions. The initiative is part of a broader effort to strengthen Mexico's economic position internationally. — Expansión, 31 Jan 2026. Read more
The article discusses the current strategies of central banks, focusing on the approaches taken by Banxico under Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja and the Federal Reserve led by Jerome Powell. It highlights the differing monetary policies and their implications for economic stability. The article emphasizes the importance of these strategies in the context of global economic challenges. — Expansión, 31 Jan 2026. Read more
Wall Street ended the trading session in the red following the nomination of Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve. The Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) also experienced a decline, falling by 2.80%. This market reaction reflects investor sentiment regarding the implications of Warsh's nomination for future monetary policy. — El Financiero, 30 Jan 2026. Read more
The Banco Central de Colombia has increased its interest rates by 100 basis points, bringing the new rate to 10.25%. This decision reflects the bank's ongoing efforts to manage economic conditions and inflation within the country. — El Economista, 30 Jan 2026. Read more
Mexico keeps interest rate steady after 12 consecutive cuts — Google News, 06 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexico's Dilemma: Fueling Cuba Amid U.S. Tariff Threats — Google News, 06 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexican Peso Slides Versus Dollar After Central Bank Holds Rates — Google News, 06 Feb 2026. Read more
Michael Pfister from Commerzbank analyses the Mexican central bank’s expected decision on interest rates — Google News, 05 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexico Positions Mining as USMCA Strategic Pillar — Google News, 05 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (7%) — Google News, 05 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexico’s Winning Edge in Trump’s Trade War — Google News, 05 Feb 2026. Read more
Remittances to Mexico fall by $3 billion; things won’t get better in 2026, experts warn — Google News, 05 Feb 2026. Read more
PEMEX Doubles Daily Refinery Output / Epstein Case Reaches Mexico — Google News, 04 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexico Remittances Fall After 11-Year Growth Streak — Google News, 04 Feb 2026. Read more
Updated: 2026-02-06 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
Following the December 18, 2025 decision, Banxico's policy rate stands at 7.00%, down 0.25 percentage points in a bid to soothe the economic beast. After Banxico's December 18 meeting, the target rate now sits at 7.00%, reflecting a recent cut of 0.25 percentage points. This decision breaks the ice on a streak that started with a rate hike back in March 2023, leading to a cumulative change that keeps everyone guessing. As we head into the next meeting in 48 days, the prospect of further easing hangs in the air, perhaps hinting at a more relaxed monetary policy posture ahead.
The Fed's target rate, in contrast, is playing it cool at 3.62%, leaving a juicy 3.38 percentage points of rate differential that could make investors drool. Relative to the United States, the Fed's target rate currently stands at 3.62%, creating a notable 3.38 percentage point differential with Mexico. This gap could lead to interesting dynamics in capital flows, as investors ponder where to place their bets. The Fed's consistent lead in rate movements has set the stage for a classic first-mover/second-mover scenario, further complicating Banxico's monetary dance.
The rate differential is a double-edged sword, potentially inviting capital inflows while raising the specter of FX pressure on the peso. The rate differential not only attracts capital flows but also puts the peso under the microscope for potential foreign exchange pressure. For markets, this means that while Banxico is easing, the implications stretch far and wide, testing the limits of policy autonomy and stability in a choppy economic sea.
The central bank's policy rate is the primary tool for steering inflation and economic activity. Banxico targets 3% annual inflation and adjusts its overnight interbank rate to influence borrowing costs throughout the economy. The rate differential with the United States affects capital flows and exchange rate dynamics — a wider spread can attract foreign investment but may constrain domestic credit. Policy decisions are announced roughly every six weeks following scheduled monetary policy meetings.
Updated: 2026-02-06 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
With fresh data trickling in from CPI and the ongoing rollercoaster of the global economy, our model-based expectations suggest a strong likelihood of holding rates steady at the upcoming decision on February 5, 2026. The model points toward likely inaction, with a 58% probability of no change in rates, despite a modest expected cut of about 11 basis points. Since our last update, the mean has swung slightly, reflecting the shifting sands of economic indicators. The most probable scenario remains a hold, while a cut of 25 basis points has a respectable 39% chance of occurring, indicating the committee might be feeling the heat but not quite ready to pull the trigger just yet.
The recent influx of data brings not much change, as inflation remains persistently elevated while the peso has managed to stabilize somewhat. Our key driver variables, notably CPI and bond yields, haven’t delivered any dramatic surprises since our last review, keeping the narrative consistent with previous months. Inflation remains a critical concern, but the recent stabilization in the peso is a silver lining worth noting.
Turning to the drivers of policy, the landscape is painted with moderate hawkish pressure from inflation and a slight dovish pull from the bond yields. CPI is the heavyweight here, applying some pressure to the committee’s decision-making, while bond yields are nudging in a more dovish direction, suggesting that market sentiment is leaning towards caution. The policy-uncertainty index continues to add its own flavor of unpredictability, further complicating the decision-making process. Ultimately, while the model mechanics provide a glimpse into possible outcomes, the real decision will rest on the committee's judgment amidst these swirling winds of uncertainty.
When markets and the public can anticipate how and why the central bank acts, uncertainty falls and policy becomes more effective. Clear communication helps businesses plan investments, households make borrowing decisions, and international investors gauge currency risks. Economists often stress the importance of clarity and traceability — the ability to follow and understand decisions step by step. Without it, rate moves risk being misread, causing volatility instead of stability. With it, policy signals are more credible, anchoring expectations and strengthening the central bank's influence.
Updated: 2026-02-06 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
Bond prices as of 2026-02-06 show the 10Y-3Y spread at 1.31pp, indicating a subtle upward trend that might suggest some market cheer. Following recent bond market activity, the nominal 10Y-3Y spread has gained 0.12pp since the last observation, while the real spread holds steady at 0.39pp. This indicates a generally optimistic market, despite the backdrop of uncertainty. The breakeven inflation spread, currently at 0.92pp, suggests that investors are expecting inflation to remain modestly in check, which might be soothing for those with a penchant for stability in their portfolios. However, this ongoing inversion in the implied inflation spread—lasting a staggering 5724 days—could raise eyebrows about the long-term inflation outlook.
The curve shape suggests that markets are pricing in a 55% chance of a rate cut from Banxico, aligning with the current dovish sentiment. With the latest yield curve data, we see an alignment between market signals and expected policy moves, indicating that a softer monetary stance could be on the horizon. However, the somewhat tepid response in the real spread may hint at a lingering hesitation among investors, revealing a slight disconnect between market enthusiasm and the cautious tone of policymakers. As Banxico weighs its next move, this delicate balance of optimism and uncertainty will be crucial in shaping the future landscape.
When investors and businesses trust that monetary policy will remain credible and predictable, long-term interest rates respond more smoothly to central bank signals. Yield curve spreads between long and short maturities serve as a real-time gauge of this alignment: a stable, upward-sloping curve suggests markets expect gradual normalization, while persistent inversions often signal that markets anticipate policy shifts before they are announced. For Mexico, where inflation targeting depends on anchoring expectations across a diverse investor base, the 10-year minus 3-year spread offers a compact summary of whether policy communication is landing as intended.
So…what is this—and why am I doing it?
This project began with a simple question in 2021: how much of the work of producing useful economic information can we hand over to machines? Monitoring Monetary Policy in Mexico is a thought experiment at that frontier. By combining statistical analysis, tailored visualizations, and large language models, it demonstrates how even highly specialized topics—such as Mexican monetary policy—can be made more accessible, relevant, and insightful. Meanwhile, the system is designed to run without human intervention on a daily basis. My role is to set the design; the automation carries it out.
When does data stop being a dump and start being a story?
The initiative builds on my earlier Monitoring Mexico project but has since evolved in important ways. Data is no longer simply displayed; it is analyzed, distilled, forecasted, visualized, interpreted, narrated, and contextualized. Large language models help transform both raw and modeled data into context, turning numbers into stories. In short, raw information is transformed into understanding.
Who’s in charge here—a Raspberry Pi or common sense?
Behind the scenes, the site runs on a Raspberry Pi 5 powered by Python and a library of custom routines. Automation drives much of the process, but human expertise remains essential in designing the explanation and presenting the material. The balance between machine efficiency and human judgment is what makes the project work.
How do we cut through the jargon and keep the signal?
The aim is straightforward: to bring clarity to an area often obscured by technical detail. Monetary policy shapes households, firms, and markets, yet its analysis usually remains confined to experts. By filtering, explaining, and visualizing the data, this project seeks to make that knowledge more transparent and more useful.
Is this the 80/20 rule you learn in business school in the wild?
At its core, the site is both a contribution to public understanding and an exploration of how informational value is created. It is a humble attempt to deliver 80% of the insights of a central bank analysis with 20% of the resources—while also testing what the future of knowledge generation might look like.
What might be new the next time you drop by?
This is very much a work in progress, with new features, analyses, and visualizations added over time. We can now at the brink of generating our very own economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, and we consider a newsletter. But maybe a chatbot might be more appropriate? Coming back to check for updates is always a good idea. If the site sparks curiosity, fosters dialogue, or simply helps illuminate Mexico’s economic dynamics, it has achieved its goal.
Updated: 2026-01-30 by M.L.
Key Takeaways
The mid-January 2026 CPI release shows headline inflation at 3.74%, comfortably nestled within Banxico's target band. The mid-January 2026 CPI release shows headline inflation at 3.74%, sitting at the 36th percentile and remaining well within Banxico's target band of 3% ± 1pp. This marks a modest increase of 0.10 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a controlled rise in consumer prices. While the current level is stable, the slight uptick indicates that price pressures, although manageable, are still present in the economy. This situation underscores the importance of vigilance as the central bank navigates its monetary policy landscape in a post-pandemic recovery phase.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, tells a different story with greater intensity. Core inflation, which excludes volatile components, registered at 4.50%, significantly higher than headline inflation and positioned at the 76th percentile. This indicates a divergence as core inflation has risen by 0.10 percentage points from the prior month, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressures are becoming more pronounced. The widening gap from the target, now 1.5 percentage points above the 3% mark, raises concerns about persistent inflationary trends in essential goods and services. The central bank's task of anchoring expectations becomes increasingly critical as it contemplates future policy adjustments.
Trade prices reveal a mixed picture, with export prices climbing significantly, while import prices remain stable. Trade prices have shown notable movement, particularly in export indices, which surged to 7.05%, reflecting an increase of 1.15 percentage points compared to the prior month. This marked uptick in export prices signals robust demand dynamics in external markets, potentially leading to increased revenue for key sectors. In contrast, import prices have remained relatively stable at 2.30%, indicating that while domestic inflation pressures are less pronounced on imported goods, they are not entirely absent. The interplay between these trade price movements could have significant implications for the broader inflation landscape and monetary policy, especially as the central bank weighs its response to these differing signals.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the cost of a representative basket of goods and services purchased by Mexican households. Banxico targets 3% annual inflation with a ±1 percentage point tolerance band. Core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — reveals underlying inflation trends that guide monetary policy. Import and export price indices extend the picture by linking Mexico's inflation dynamics to global markets, trade flows, and currency movements.
Updated: 2026-02-06 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
The latest SHF House Price Index for Q3 2025 reveals a YoY inflation rate of 8.86%, which is about as spicy as a taco on a hot summer day. This inflation rate, reported on July 1, 2025, is comfortably above the historical average, strutting in at the 79th percentile since 2006. In the same breath, house price inflation is outpacing both the headline CPI at 3.69% and the housing CPI at 3.35%, creating a premium of over 5 percentage points in each case. Meanwhile, the DFM nowcast suggests a slight divergence from this observed rate, but let's not throw a piñata just yet; we’ll dig into that shortly.
Now, let’s unravel the mystery of the DFM nowcast, which brings some intriguing twists to our house price saga. The DFM nowcast, standing at 7.29% as of January 1, 2026, is lower than the observed 8.86%, indicating that the model detects downward pressure from auxiliary indicators like mortgage lending and CPI housing. This suggests that while house prices have been on a rollercoaster of inflation, the underlying trend is showing signs of mean reversion or cooling off, which could have implications for those still clinging to the idea of a housing bonanza. In short, the DFM is waving a caution flag, reminding us that even the hottest markets can cool down faster than a soggy tortilla.
Housing is a major household asset and a key store of wealth. Rising prices can lift balance sheets and collateral values, while falling prices can weaken credit conditions and confidence. Housing costs also shape the cost of living and affordability, making house price inflation relevant for both growth and distributional pressures in Mexico.
Updated: 2026-01-23
Key Takeaways
Brent oil prices through December 2025 reveal a disconcerting tale, settling at $61.81, a staggering 15.6% decline year-over-year. Brent oil prices through December 2025 reveal a disconcerting tale, settling at $61.81, a staggering 15.6% decline year-over-year. This downward trajectory, exacerbated by global supply chain disruptions and fluctuating demand, has cast a pall over Mexico's federal revenues, which hinge significantly on oil exports. With a three-day streak of decline, the implications for Pemex and the Campeche regional economy are as clear as a foggy morning: uncertainty looms large.
Copper, on the other hand, shines like a beacon, currently priced at $11,790.96 and boasting a robust 32.3% increase over the past year. Copper, on the other hand, shines like a beacon, currently priced at $11,790.96 and boasting a robust 32.3% increase over the past year. This metal's recent upward momentum—evident in a 9.1% monthly increase—reflects a burgeoning demand from the tech sector and a resurgence in global infrastructure projects. For Mexico's mining sector, particularly in Sonora, this trend offers a silver lining amidst the otherwise turbulent commodity seas.
Corn prices are on a modest ascent, currently at $205.32, with a year-over-year rise of 1.2%. Corn prices are on a modest ascent, currently at $205.32, with a year-over-year rise of 1.2%. This gentle rise, marked by a 1.8% increase in the last month, paints a picture of stability in an otherwise volatile agricultural landscape. For Mexico's 1.5 million smallholder farmers, this incremental growth brings hope, but the specter of food price inflation still lurks in the shadows.
Commodity prices feed directly into Mexico's inflation pulse and terms of trade. Oil and corn affect energy and food costs, while copper is a proxy for global industrial demand. For policymakers, sharp commodity swings can shift inflation expectations and fiscal balances, making these prices critical to monitor.
Updated: 2026-01-19
Key Takeaways
The December 2025 IMSS release shows unit labor costs at 3.89%, reflecting a rise in wages outpacing productivity. Following December's formal sector wage data, ULC in manufacturing is climbing, indicating that wages are growing faster than productivity. This latest figure is in the 80th percentile and marks a month-over-month decline of 1.01 percentage points. It suggests that businesses might face cost-push inflation pressures, which could squeeze profit margins and affect competitiveness down the line.
Real wages in the formal sector continue to show positive growth, signaling improved purchasing power for workers. Manufacturing real wages are currently up by 3.29%, while retail real wages are slightly higher at 3.77%. Even though both sectors are experiencing gains, the decline in growth rates compared to previous months indicates that households may be feeling a pinch, as the overall growth is slowing. However, the fact that purchasing power is still on the rise is a silver lining for households navigating through economic uncertainties.
Across sectors, manufacturing and retail diverge in their labor cost dynamics, with manufacturing showing stronger wage growth. Manufacturing is currently outperforming retail in terms of unit labor costs, which are rising faster than those in the retail sector. This divergence suggests that while consumers in retail may be enjoying a bit of wage growth, manufacturers are grappling with heightened labor costs that could impact their pricing strategies. Retail, on the other hand, is lagging behind, with ULC growth remaining more subdued at 3.56%.
Unit labor costs (ULC) measure the average cost of labor per unit of output — when wages grow faster than productivity, ULC rises, potentially squeezing profit margins and fueling inflation. In Mexico, where the formal sector employs roughly half the workforce, IMSS-registered wage data captures trends in the formal economy but misses the informal sector's dynamics. Real wages — nominal wages adjusted for inflation — determine household purchasing power and underpin consumer demand. For policymakers, these indicators help balance inflation control, competitiveness, and the economic welfare of Mexican workers.
Updated: 2026-01-19
Key Takeaways
Following the latest quarterly GDP release from INEGI, real GDP growth in Mexico remains stable at 2.31%, with no change from the previous estimate. The nowcast estimate, updated with the most recent data, shows that the Mexican economy is holding steady for the moment. This stability comes at a time when global markets are feeling the pressure, especially with Wall Street showing signs of unease as investors brace for potential interest rate moves in the U.S. Notably, this economic backdrop is crucial for understanding the conditions under which Mexican growth is playing out.
Private consumption continues to be a bright spot in the economic landscape. With a growth rate of 2.85%, household spending is supporting overall activity, helping to buffer against external headwinds. This steady demand from consumers is vital, especially as the economy navigates a more cautious global trading environment.
Exports are showing a healthy growth rate of 5.21%, reflecting resilient external demand. This figure indicates that despite the broader concerns in the U.S. economy, Mexican goods are still finding their way to international markets. As traders keep an eye on U.S. economic indicators, these export figures signal a continued appetite for Mexican manufacturing, primarily from our biggest trading partner.
Imports are also on the rise, currently at 5.37%, indicating robust domestic demand. This uptick suggests that Mexican consumers and businesses are actively seeking foreign goods, which can be a double-edged sword. While it reflects a strong appetite for consumption and investment, it also raises concerns about the trade balance in the longer term, especially if external conditions shift.
Net trade dynamics remain challenging to assess without precise figures, but the growth in imports compared to exports may hint at pressure on the trade balance. As we look forward, the interplay between these external and internal demands will be key in shaping the economic narrative for Mexico. With the global economy on shaky ground, the balance between exports and imports will be under close scrutiny.
Real activity data tracks the economy's engine — output, spending, and trade — while nowcasts bridge the lag between releases. Real GDP captures total production; private consumption reflects household demand; exports and imports reveal external demand and the flow of inputs for Mexico's trade-exposed, manufacturing-heavy economy. Shifts in U.S. demand, global prices, and the peso often show up first in trade, then filter into GDP and consumption. Because official series arrive with delays and revisions, model-based nowcasts provide an early, probabilistic read for policy timing — useful if treated with uncertainty bands and cross-checked against higher-frequency signals.
Updated: 2026-01-16
Key Takeaways
The December 2025 ENOE survey shows unemployment at 3.28%, nudging up slightly from the previous month. The December 2025 ENOE survey shows unemployment at 3.28%, which is about the 33rd percentile historically. This marks a modest increase of 0.025 from November, continuing an upward trend observed over the last two months, with a total rise of 0.106. These developments come amid a rising tide of uncertainty in the U.S. economy, as highlighted by Wall Street's recent dips in response to concerns over inflation and potential rate adjustments from the Fed.
By gender, unemployment rates reveal a notable consistency, though slightly higher for women. Male and female unemployment rates are at 3.37% and 3.55%, respectively, both reflecting no change from the previous month. Despite this stability, the fact that women's unemployment remains marginally higher suggests a potential area of concern as the labor market navigates these uncertain waters.
Informal employment continues its downward trend, signaling a shift in the labor landscape. The share of informal workers stands at 27.8%, having fallen by 0.0258 from the previous month. This 6-month streak of decline, which totals a reduction of 0.295, could indicate a gradual formalization of the labor market, albeit amidst the broader economic challenges.
Unemployment spells are lengthening slightly, hinting at lingering difficulties for job seekers. The average duration of unemployment now sits at 1.87 months, showing an increase of 0.161 from the last quarter. This uptick, while not alarming, suggests that those out of work are finding it increasingly challenging to secure new positions, contributing to a sense of prolonged difficulty in the market.
Among the unemployed, educational attainment is shifting, reflecting a worrying trend. The educational mix of job seekers shows an increase in the proportion of those with no education, now at 3.51%. This rise, although modest, highlights potential vulnerabilities in the labor market, particularly as the job landscape evolves and requires more skilled workers.
Labor slack and its composition shape inflation pressure, policy timing, and social risk. Unemployment, underemployment, and unemployment by gender reveal how broad and uneven slack is; longer unemployment durations and weaker prospects for the more-educated raise scarring risks and damp wage growth. In Mexico's large informal sector, the informal employment share can swing sharply — often contracting faster in downturns as unprotected jobs are cut first, then rebounding early — masking true slack if headline unemployment alone is tracked. Tracking these dimensions helps distinguish cyclical slack from structural mismatches and calibrate monetary policy accordingly.
Updated: 2026-02-05 by María López
Key Takeaways
INEGI's Q4 2025 productivity release shows secondary sector output at 101, reflecting a modest upward trend, yet presents a complex landscape of performance across its subsectors. The latest INEGI productivity data for Q4 2025, released in February 2026, indicates that secondary sector productivity stands at 101, signaling a 0.578 increase from the previous month. This growth, however, is not universally felt; while sectors like construction have surged, buoyed by a robust upward streak, the mining sector remains mired in a dismal 10th percentile, reflecting broader economic challenges. The divergence in performance suggests that while some areas are thriving, others are struggling—an indication that the gains in productivity may not be as resilient as they seem.
Manufacturing composites reveal a troubling divergence between productivity and labor demand. Across the PCA indices, manufacturing composites show a worrying trend: while productivity has stabilized at 0.281, sales have outpaced it with a recent uptick, revealing a delicate balance that raises sustainability concerns. Labor demand, however, has fallen sharply to -1.49, indicating that despite higher sales, the industry is not translating this into hiring or investment—an ominous sign for future growth.
Within manufacturing, construction stands out as a beacon of strength, while transport equipment falters. The top-performing subsectors within manufacturing include construction, which boasts a productivity index of 105, reflecting a 2-month upward streak, and food production, stable at 109. However, the transport equipment subsector has witnessed a steep decline, with productivity dropping to 98.5, highlighting the struggles of a sector that carries significant weight in overall manufacturing performance. This stark contrast further underscores the uneven recovery across the industrial landscape, with implications for resource allocation and strategic planning.
Productivity trends reveal the economy's capacity to grow without stoking inflation. In Mexico, productivity in the secondary sector — mining, energy, construction, and especially manufacturing — signals how efficiently output expands relative to inputs. Strong productivity gains mean firms can meet demand without raising prices, easing inflation pressure and supporting sustainable wage growth. Weak productivity, by contrast, constrains supply, making cost shocks more inflationary. Manufacturing deserves closer scrutiny, as its diverse subsectors respond differently to global demand, exchange rate shifts, and investment cycles. Tracking these patterns helps judge whether growth is supported by efficiency gains or reliant on credit and labor cost increases.
Updated: 2026-02-06 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
The January 2026 consumer confidence survey shows the general index at 1.15, reflecting a slight dip in sentiment as worries about rule of law and security continue to cast a long shadow. INEGI's latest January release reveals confidence at the 87th percentile, indicating that while consumers are generally optimistic, they are feeling the pinch as the index fell by 0.123 points from the previous month. The most striking divergence comes from the durables-specific index, which remains a robust 2.11 and suggests that consumers are still keen to splurge on big-ticket items, even as confidence in general stability wanes. This discrepancy hints at a complex consumer psyche that’s eager to buy but wary of the broader economic landscape.
Consumer confidence surveys gauge how secure households feel about their income and the economy. The general confidence index reflects overall sentiment, while sector-specific measures — such as willingness to purchase durables or housing — reveal spending appetite in categories most sensitive to interest rates. Stronger confidence supports consumption and can add inflationary pressure; weaker confidence signals caution and potential slack. For monetary policy, these indicators help anticipate whether rate moves are restraining or stimulating household demand.
COMING SOON...
Updated: 2026-02-04 by Pablo Rivas
Key Takeaways
The January 2026 SPF survey shows the aggregate Concern Index at 2.83, reflecting a dip from last month. The January 2026 SPF survey shows the aggregate Concern Index at 2.83, placing it around the 64th percentile. This index is falling, down by 0.06 from December. It's worth noting, though, that over the past year, concerns have crept up by 0.55, indicating a growing unease among economists despite this recent dip.
Economists have identified public insecurity as the leading constraint on growth, with a notable uptick in concerns over U.S. The key constraints currently cited include public insecurity at 10.1%, U.S. trade policy at 8.4%, and a lack of structural change at 4.2%. The single biggest mover this month is public insecurity, which saw a rise of 1.53 percentage points. This growing concern reflects broader anxieties about safety and stability, which could weigh heavily on economic confidence.
The perceived probability of recession stands at 25.0%, marking a moderate level of concern relative to historical norms. Recession concerns among surveyed economists are currently moderate, reflecting a 25.0% probability compared to the previous quarter. This signals a bit of unease, especially given the elevated standing relative to historical averages. Looking ahead, the probability eases to 15.0% for the next quarter, suggesting some confidence that the economy might stabilize in the near term.
According to forecasters, the peso is viewed as overvalued, indicating a persistent misalignment in expectations. FX expectations suggest the peso is overvalued, with a current-month misalignment of +0.205. This perception has been consistent across the forecast horizon, indicating a sustained belief that the peso is weaker than anticipated. Such misalignment might prompt policymakers to reconsider interventions to stabilize the currency.
Banxico's Survey of Professional Forecasters (Encuesta sobre las Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía del Sector Privado) polls economists from major financial institutions, consultancies, and research centers. Published monthly, it captures expert views on growth constraints, inflation expectations, and recession risks before official data confirm trends. Because these respondents shape market narratives and influence investment decisions, the survey offers an early window into shifting professional sentiment — making it a valuable leading indicator for policymakers and market participants alike.
Updated: 2026-02-06 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
Mexican equity markets as of February 6, 2026, show excess returns at 0.0408, signaling a cautious optimism despite the usual suspects lurking in the shadows. With data through February 1, 2026, realized volatility is nudging up to 0.0088, reflecting a slightly more jittery market atmosphere. The latest illiquidity index, while not materially shifted, remains elevated at 137.45, suggesting that while markets are eager to dance, liquidity is still a reluctant partner. Notably, the excess return index has climbed 0.0798 in the past month, hinting at a pulse of positivity amidst the ongoing economic drama.
The decomposition shows that recent volatility has been largely driven by US policy shocks and persistent uncertainty, making volatility feel like that one friend who shows up uninvited. Specifically, US policy shocks topped the charts in contributing to both excess returns and realized volatility, with liquidity and financing issues also playing significant roles. The market's mood seems to be dictated by external cues, with uncertainties still casting a long shadow on local sentiment. As we navigate this volatility, it’s clear that the interplay between domestic and international factors is keeping everyone on their toes.
Investor sentiment remains a mixed bag, as reflected in the latest AAII and NAAIM readings, with both indicating a slight uptick in cautious optimism. Policy uncertainty continues to simmer, as indicated by rising Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) levels, suggesting that while investors might be feeling a tad more adventurous, the underlying jitters are far from extinguished. The market seems to be waiting for clearer signals before making any bold moves, caught in a dance of hope and hesitation.
Financial market returns, volatility, and liquidity signal investor sentiment and risk appetite. Excess returns over government bonds capture the risk premium investors demand for holding equities; wider spreads suggest higher perceived risk or stronger growth prospects. Realized volatility in a stock market index reflects uncertainty — sharp swings indicate fragile sentiment and raise the cost of capital. Illiquidity shows how trading volume and price impact interact: when liquidity dries up, small trades can move prices disproportionately, amplifying shocks. For monetary policy, these indicators matter because they shape funding costs, investment flows, and the broader transmission of rate decisions into financial conditions.
Updated: 2026-02-06 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
Banxico's February 2026 credit release shows money market spreads tightening, hinting at more favorable lending conditions ahead. Following the latest February lending data, rate premia are standing at 0.229, a snug little spot around the 15th percentile. This marks a narrowing of about 0.0763 from last month, which suggests that lenders are feeling a bit more generous—perhaps they’ve finally come around to the idea of a cozy lending environment. With the spread tightening, it’s like the money market is saying, "Hey, let’s make borrowing a little less painful, shall we?"
Household mortgage rates continue their upward dance, but the rhythm is shifting. The total annual cost of mortgages is averaging 14%, with a range stretching from 11.1% to a rather eye-watering 28.2%. This widening trend of 0.09 in the latest month signals that potential homeowners might need to rethink their budgeting strategies—unless they have a trust fund from a distant uncle, of course. As policy rates inch down, the pass-through effect on mortgage costs could be slower than a tortoise in a marathon, making affordability a growing concern for many.
Debt issuance patterns show firms are leaning heavily towards fixed-rate financing, a sign of cautious optimism in the market. Corporate financing is taking a turn, with fixed-rate debt now making up 19.63% of GDP, while variable rates hold a lesser share at 10.22%. This shift indicates that companies are locking in costs, possibly in anticipation of a more stable interest rate environment, while others are left to ponder the wisdom of variable rates in such uncertain times. As firms adjust their strategies, it’s a clear signal that they’re navigating the choppy waters of economic indecision with a life vest—fixed rates—safely strapped on.
Rate premia show how market and bank funding costs move relative to the policy rate, indicating the efficiency of monetary transmission. Household mortgage rates capture the cost of long-term borrowing — their sharp rise in recent years signals affordability pressures and distributional effects, as many families face double-digit costs. Debt issuance patterns, normalized by GDP, reveal how firms finance themselves; the balance between fixed and variable rates matters for vulnerability to policy shifts. Together, these indicators show how policy rates filter into real borrowing conditions, affecting credit demand, investment, and ultimately growth and inflation dynamics.
