Stay informed with the latest insights on Mexico's economy via statistics and AI analysis and synthesis.
Updated: 2026-02-11
Cetes, or government securities, experienced a decline after the release of Mexico's inflation data. The report indicated a notable change in market sentiment, influencing investor behavior. The article discusses the implications of this inflation data on the financial markets and government securities. — El Economista, 11 Feb 2026. Read more
In January, Mexico's revenue from the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) increased by 19%, driven by new health taxes on sugary drinks and tobacco products. The government highlighted that these taxes are aimed at promoting healthier consumption habits while simultaneously increasing fiscal income. — El Economista, 11 Feb 2026. Read more
Cetes rates in Mexico have continued to decrease following the release of inflation data that was lower than anticipated. This trend reflects the current economic conditions and the response of financial markets to the inflation figures. The article discusses the implications of these developments for investors and the broader economy. — El Economista, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
The Mexican peso experienced a moderate advance against the US dollar following the release of US retail sales data. The report indicated a stronger performance in consumer spending, which positively influenced the peso's value. Market analysts are closely monitoring these developments as they could impact future economic policies. — El Economista, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
The Mexican peso closed with a slight gain against the US dollar as markets await employment data from the United States. The exchange rate reflects cautious optimism among investors, with attention focused on upcoming economic indicators that could influence monetary policy decisions. — El Financiero, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
The confidence in the Mexican peso has decreased for the second consecutive week. This decline is attributed to various economic factors, including market reactions to recent policy decisions. Analysts are closely monitoring the situation as it may impact future economic stability. — El Economista, 09 Feb 2026. Read more
The article discusses Nu's decision to maintain its yield rate, raising questions about the attractiveness of investing in the institution. Experts are analyzing the implications of this decision for potential investors, considering the current financial landscape. The article emphasizes the need for investors to evaluate their options carefully in light of this development. — El Economista, 05 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexican Exports Double USMCA Utilization Amid New US Tariffs — Google News, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
Trump’s Threats to Cuba’s Oil Suppliers Put Mexico in a Bind — Google News, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexico’s nearshoring edge faces investment uncertainty — Google News, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexico’s Sheinbaum laments US’ oil block on Cuba — Google News, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexico Remittances Seen Under Pressure in 2026, BBVA Says — Google News, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
Trump Immigration Policies, Peso to Drag Down Remittances — Google News, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
USTR Greer says USMCA talks with Mexico ongoing, Canada more difficult — Google News, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexican Peso Risk in Plain Sight: Positioning for USMCA 2026 — Google News, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
Mexico's Secretary of Economy, Along with COA, Holds Forum on Combating Illicit Trade — Google News, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
January’s core inflation in Mexico exceeded expectations, recorded at 0.6%, surpassing the predicted 0.59% — Google News, 10 Feb 2026. Read more
Updated: 2026-02-07 by Alexander Dentler
Key Takeaways
Following the December 18, 2025 decision, Banxico's policy rate stands at 7.00%, reflecting a recent cut of 0.25 percentage points. After Banxico's December meeting, the target rate has been held steady at 7.00%, following a cumulative reduction of 0.50 percentage points since the last hike in March 2023. The recent cut represents a strategic response to evolving economic conditions, characterized by lingering uncertainties surrounding both domestic and external factors. As Banxico prepares for its next meeting in 47 days, the focus remains on adapting to the shifting landscape of economic pressures and inflationary expectations.
The Fed's target rate currently stands at 3.62%, following a similar cut of 0.25 percentage points in December. Relative to the United States, Banxico's more aggressive rate stance reflects a proactive approach to managing inflation and economic stability amidst heightened global economic uncertainties. The recent coordination in rate cuts illustrates a shared concern over external economic conditions, yet the substantial rate differential signals diverging monetary policy paths. This dynamic places Banxico in a unique position to leverage policy tools more autonomously, especially as it navigates domestic challenges.
The rate differential is likely to influence capital flows and currency stability in the region. For markets, the significant rate differential could enhance Mexico's appeal to investors, potentially supporting capital inflows. Nonetheless, the heightened concerns surrounding rule of law and security suggest that such advantages may be offset by risks that could deter long-term investment. As Banxico maneuvers through these complexities, the interplay between rate policy and economic fundamentals will remain critical.
The central bank's policy rate is the primary tool for steering inflation and economic activity. Banxico targets 3% annual inflation and adjusts its overnight interbank rate to influence borrowing costs throughout the economy. The rate differential with the United States affects capital flows and exchange rate dynamics — a wider spread can attract foreign investment but may constrain domestic credit. Policy decisions are announced roughly every six weeks following scheduled monetary policy meetings.
Updated: 2026-02-11 by Pablo Rivas
Key Takeaways
With updates to the economic landscape, our model suggests a substantial chance of no action from Banxico. Following the latest economic indicators, the model points toward likely inaction at the upcoming decision on February 5, 2026, with a hold probability around 58%. This is a shift from prior expectations, as the mean expected move now suggests a cut of about -11bp. The modal bucket indicates a hold, while a cut of -25bp remains a significant possibility at around 39%. Overall, the landscape reflects a balance of economic pressures that have kept the committee’s options open.
Recent data updates show inflation trends and economic performance continuing to influence the outlook. Notably, inflation ticked higher, ending 2025 at 3.7%, which keeps it above the target. This persistent inflation, coupled with a sluggish GDP growth of only 0.5%, paints a picture of an economy still wrestling with underlying pressures, influencing our model-based expectations.
The main drivers present a mixed picture, with certain factors pulling in different directions. On the positive side, the stability in bond yields suggests a slight dovish pull, while elevated credit spreads and the currency's recent volatility exert moderate hawkish pressure. The economic policy uncertainty (EPU) remains a notable factor, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the policy environment. It's important to remember that the actual decision will ultimately depend on the committee's judgment, weighing these mixed signals against their broader economic outlook.
When markets and the public can anticipate how and why the central bank acts, uncertainty falls and policy becomes more effective. Clear communication helps businesses plan investments, households make borrowing decisions, and international investors gauge currency risks. Economists often stress the importance of clarity and traceability — the ability to follow and understand decisions step by step. Without it, rate moves risk being misread, causing volatility instead of stability. With it, policy signals are more credible, anchoring expectations and strengthening the central bank's influence.
Updated: 2026-02-11 by Pablo Rivas
Key Takeaways
Bond prices as of 2026-02-11 show the 10Y-3Y spread at 1.36%, reflecting a slight uptick from previous levels. The latest yield curve data reveals the nominal 10Y-3Y spread at 1.36%, marking a rise of 0.22% since the last observation. In contrast, the real spread sits at 0.23%, but has dipped by 0.10%. Meanwhile, the breakeven inflation spread, now at 1.13%, suggests that market players are anticipating a moderate inflationary environment ahead, which can influence central bank policy decisions.
The curve shape suggests a market leaning toward easing monetary policy in the near future. Markets appear to be pricing in a more dovish outlook, aligning with expectations of a potential rate cut from Banxico, given the current economic uncertainties. However, if the Fed's stance remains hawkish, there could be a disconnect between market signals and the broader policy consensus, particularly if inflation continues to moderate.
When investors and businesses trust that monetary policy will remain credible and predictable, long-term interest rates respond more smoothly to central bank signals. Yield curve spreads between long and short maturities serve as a real-time gauge of this alignment: a stable, upward-sloping curve suggests markets expect gradual normalization, while persistent inversions often signal that markets anticipate policy shifts before they are announced. For Mexico, where inflation targeting depends on anchoring expectations across a diverse investor base, the 10-year minus 3-year spread offers a compact summary of whether policy communication is landing as intended.
So…what is this—and why am I doing it?
This project began with a simple question in 2021: how much of the work of producing useful economic information can we hand over to machines? Monitoring Monetary Policy in Mexico is a thought experiment at that frontier. By combining statistical analysis, tailored visualizations, and large language models, it demonstrates how even highly specialized topics—such as Mexican monetary policy—can be made more accessible, relevant, and insightful. Meanwhile, the system is designed to run without human intervention on a daily basis. My role is to set the design; the automation carries it out.
When does data stop being a dump and start being a story?
The initiative builds on my earlier Monitoring Mexico project but has since evolved in important ways. Data is no longer simply displayed; it is analyzed, distilled, forecasted, visualized, interpreted, narrated, and contextualized. Large language models help transform both raw and modeled data into context, turning numbers into stories. In short, raw information is transformed into understanding.
Who’s in charge here—a Raspberry Pi or common sense?
Behind the scenes, the site runs on a Raspberry Pi 5 powered by Python and a library of custom routines. Automation drives much of the process, but human expertise remains essential in designing the explanation and presenting the material. The balance between machine efficiency and human judgment is what makes the project work.
How do we cut through the jargon and keep the signal?
The aim is straightforward: to bring clarity to an area often obscured by technical detail. Monetary policy shapes households, firms, and markets, yet its analysis usually remains confined to experts. By filtering, explaining, and visualizing the data, this project seeks to make that knowledge more transparent and more useful.
Is this the 80/20 rule you learn in business school in the wild?
At its core, the site is both a contribution to public understanding and an exploration of how informational value is created. It is a humble attempt to deliver 80% of the insights of a central bank analysis with 20% of the resources—while also testing what the future of knowledge generation might look like.
What might be new the next time you drop by?
This is very much a work in progress, with new features, analyses, and visualizations added over time. We can now at the brink of generating our very own economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, and we consider a newsletter. But maybe a chatbot might be more appropriate? Coming back to check for updates is always a good idea. If the site sparks curiosity, fosters dialogue, or simply helps illuminate Mexico’s economic dynamics, it has achieved its goal.
Updated: 2026-02-11 by Pablo Rivas
Key Takeaways
The early-January 2026 CPI release shows headline inflation at 3.83%, comfortably nestled within Banxico's target band of 2%-4%. The early-January 2026 CPI release shows headline inflation at 3.83%, comfortably nestled within Banxico's target band of 2%-4%. This marks a modest increase of 0.07 from the previous month, suggesting a slow but steady uptick in cost-of-living pressures. Given that this growth rate is around the 40th percentile historically, it signals that while we're not out of the woods, things aren't spiraling out of control just yet.
Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, tells a different story. Core inflation, which excludes volatile components, is currently at 4.58%, significantly higher than headline inflation. This indicates that underlying price pressures are diverging from the overall trend, with core inflation rising by 0.07 from the previous month. As this figure sits in the 78th percentile historically, it suggests that persistent inflationary forces are at play, raising eyebrows about the sustainability of consumer purchasing power and the potential need for policy adjustments.
Trade prices are revealing interesting dynamics that could influence future inflation trajectories. Trade prices, particularly export prices, have seen a notable rise with the latest growth rate at 7.05%. This reflects a robust increase of 1.15 from the previous month, indicating that global market conditions are tightening. Meanwhile, import prices are also on the upswing but lag behind, currently at 2.30%. The rising export prices could put additional pressure on domestic inflation, complicating Banxico's path as they aim to steer inflation back toward the 3% target.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the cost of a representative basket of goods and services purchased by Mexican households. Banxico targets 3% annual inflation with a tolerance band of 2%-4%. Core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — reveals underlying inflation trends that guide monetary policy. Import and export price indices extend the picture by linking Mexico's inflation dynamics to global markets, trade flows, and currency movements.
Updated: 2026-02-06 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
The latest SHF House Price Index for Q3 2025 reveals a YoY inflation rate of 8.86%, which is about as spicy as a taco on a hot summer day. This inflation rate, reported on July 1, 2025, is comfortably above the historical average, strutting in at the 79th percentile since 2006. In the same breath, house price inflation is outpacing both the headline CPI at 3.69% and the housing CPI at 3.35%, creating a premium of over 5 percentage points in each case. Meanwhile, the DFM nowcast suggests a slight divergence from this observed rate, but let's not throw a piñata just yet; we’ll dig into that shortly.
Now, let’s unravel the mystery of the DFM nowcast, which brings some intriguing twists to our house price saga. The DFM nowcast, standing at 7.29% as of January 1, 2026, is lower than the observed 8.86%, indicating that the model detects downward pressure from auxiliary indicators like mortgage lending and CPI housing. This suggests that while house prices have been on a rollercoaster of inflation, the underlying trend is showing signs of mean reversion or cooling off, which could have implications for those still clinging to the idea of a housing bonanza. In short, the DFM is waving a caution flag, reminding us that even the hottest markets can cool down faster than a soggy tortilla.
Housing is a major household asset and a key store of wealth. Rising prices can lift balance sheets and collateral values, while falling prices can weaken credit conditions and confidence. Housing costs also shape the cost of living and affordability, making house price inflation relevant for both growth and distributional pressures in Mexico.
Updated: 2026-01-23
Key Takeaways
Brent oil prices through December 2025 reveal a disconcerting tale, settling at $61.81, a staggering 15.6% decline year-over-year. Brent oil prices through December 2025 reveal a disconcerting tale, settling at $61.81, a staggering 15.6% decline year-over-year. This downward trajectory, exacerbated by global supply chain disruptions and fluctuating demand, has cast a pall over Mexico's federal revenues, which hinge significantly on oil exports. With a three-day streak of decline, the implications for Pemex and the Campeche regional economy are as clear as a foggy morning: uncertainty looms large.
Copper, on the other hand, shines like a beacon, currently priced at $11,790.96 and boasting a robust 32.3% increase over the past year. Copper, on the other hand, shines like a beacon, currently priced at $11,790.96 and boasting a robust 32.3% increase over the past year. This metal's recent upward momentum—evident in a 9.1% monthly increase—reflects a burgeoning demand from the tech sector and a resurgence in global infrastructure projects. For Mexico's mining sector, particularly in Sonora, this trend offers a silver lining amidst the otherwise turbulent commodity seas.
Corn prices are on a modest ascent, currently at $205.32, with a year-over-year rise of 1.2%. Corn prices are on a modest ascent, currently at $205.32, with a year-over-year rise of 1.2%. This gentle rise, marked by a 1.8% increase in the last month, paints a picture of stability in an otherwise volatile agricultural landscape. For Mexico's 1.5 million smallholder farmers, this incremental growth brings hope, but the specter of food price inflation still lurks in the shadows.
Commodity prices feed directly into Mexico's inflation pulse and terms of trade. Oil and corn affect energy and food costs, while copper is a proxy for global industrial demand. For policymakers, sharp commodity swings can shift inflation expectations and fiscal balances, making these prices critical to monitor.
Updated: 2026-01-19
Key Takeaways
The December 2025 IMSS release shows unit labor costs at 3.89%, reflecting a rise in wages outpacing productivity. Following December's formal sector wage data, ULC in manufacturing is climbing, indicating that wages are growing faster than productivity. This latest figure is in the 80th percentile and marks a month-over-month decline of 1.01 percentage points. It suggests that businesses might face cost-push inflation pressures, which could squeeze profit margins and affect competitiveness down the line.
Real wages in the formal sector continue to show positive growth, signaling improved purchasing power for workers. Manufacturing real wages are currently up by 3.29%, while retail real wages are slightly higher at 3.77%. Even though both sectors are experiencing gains, the decline in growth rates compared to previous months indicates that households may be feeling a pinch, as the overall growth is slowing. However, the fact that purchasing power is still on the rise is a silver lining for households navigating through economic uncertainties.
Across sectors, manufacturing and retail diverge in their labor cost dynamics, with manufacturing showing stronger wage growth. Manufacturing is currently outperforming retail in terms of unit labor costs, which are rising faster than those in the retail sector. This divergence suggests that while consumers in retail may be enjoying a bit of wage growth, manufacturers are grappling with heightened labor costs that could impact their pricing strategies. Retail, on the other hand, is lagging behind, with ULC growth remaining more subdued at 3.56%.
Unit labor costs (ULC) measure the average cost of labor per unit of output — when wages grow faster than productivity, ULC rises, potentially squeezing profit margins and fueling inflation. In Mexico, where the formal sector employs roughly half the workforce, IMSS-registered wage data captures trends in the formal economy but misses the informal sector's dynamics. Real wages — nominal wages adjusted for inflation — determine household purchasing power and underpin consumer demand. For policymakers, these indicators help balance inflation control, competitiveness, and the economic welfare of Mexican workers.
Updated: 2026-01-19
Key Takeaways
Following the latest quarterly GDP release from INEGI, real GDP growth in Mexico remains stable at 2.31%, with no change from the previous estimate. The nowcast estimate, updated with the most recent data, shows that the Mexican economy is holding steady for the moment. This stability comes at a time when global markets are feeling the pressure, especially with Wall Street showing signs of unease as investors brace for potential interest rate moves in the U.S. Notably, this economic backdrop is crucial for understanding the conditions under which Mexican growth is playing out.
Private consumption continues to be a bright spot in the economic landscape. With a growth rate of 2.85%, household spending is supporting overall activity, helping to buffer against external headwinds. This steady demand from consumers is vital, especially as the economy navigates a more cautious global trading environment.
Exports are showing a healthy growth rate of 5.21%, reflecting resilient external demand. This figure indicates that despite the broader concerns in the U.S. economy, Mexican goods are still finding their way to international markets. As traders keep an eye on U.S. economic indicators, these export figures signal a continued appetite for Mexican manufacturing, primarily from our biggest trading partner.
Imports are also on the rise, currently at 5.37%, indicating robust domestic demand. This uptick suggests that Mexican consumers and businesses are actively seeking foreign goods, which can be a double-edged sword. While it reflects a strong appetite for consumption and investment, it also raises concerns about the trade balance in the longer term, especially if external conditions shift.
Net trade dynamics remain challenging to assess without precise figures, but the growth in imports compared to exports may hint at pressure on the trade balance. As we look forward, the interplay between these external and internal demands will be key in shaping the economic narrative for Mexico. With the global economy on shaky ground, the balance between exports and imports will be under close scrutiny.
Real activity data tracks the economy's engine — output, spending, and trade — while nowcasts bridge the lag between releases. Real GDP captures total production; private consumption reflects household demand; exports and imports reveal external demand and the flow of inputs for Mexico's trade-exposed, manufacturing-heavy economy. Shifts in U.S. demand, global prices, and the peso often show up first in trade, then filter into GDP and consumption. Because official series arrive with delays and revisions, model-based nowcasts provide an early, probabilistic read for policy timing — useful if treated with uncertainty bands and cross-checked against higher-frequency signals.
Updated: 2026-01-16
Key Takeaways
The December 2025 ENOE survey shows unemployment at 3.28%, nudging up slightly from the previous month. The December 2025 ENOE survey shows unemployment at 3.28%, which is about the 33rd percentile historically. This marks a modest increase of 0.025 from November, continuing an upward trend observed over the last two months, with a total rise of 0.106. These developments come amid a rising tide of uncertainty in the U.S. economy, as highlighted by Wall Street's recent dips in response to concerns over inflation and potential rate adjustments from the Fed.
By gender, unemployment rates reveal a notable consistency, though slightly higher for women. Male and female unemployment rates are at 3.37% and 3.55%, respectively, both reflecting no change from the previous month. Despite this stability, the fact that women's unemployment remains marginally higher suggests a potential area of concern as the labor market navigates these uncertain waters.
Informal employment continues its downward trend, signaling a shift in the labor landscape. The share of informal workers stands at 27.8%, having fallen by 0.0258 from the previous month. This 6-month streak of decline, which totals a reduction of 0.295, could indicate a gradual formalization of the labor market, albeit amidst the broader economic challenges.
Unemployment spells are lengthening slightly, hinting at lingering difficulties for job seekers. The average duration of unemployment now sits at 1.87 months, showing an increase of 0.161 from the last quarter. This uptick, while not alarming, suggests that those out of work are finding it increasingly challenging to secure new positions, contributing to a sense of prolonged difficulty in the market.
Among the unemployed, educational attainment is shifting, reflecting a worrying trend. The educational mix of job seekers shows an increase in the proportion of those with no education, now at 3.51%. This rise, although modest, highlights potential vulnerabilities in the labor market, particularly as the job landscape evolves and requires more skilled workers.
Labor slack and its composition shape inflation pressure, policy timing, and social risk. Unemployment, underemployment, and unemployment by gender reveal how broad and uneven slack is; longer unemployment durations and weaker prospects for the more-educated raise scarring risks and damp wage growth. In Mexico's large informal sector, the informal employment share can swing sharply — often contracting faster in downturns as unprotected jobs are cut first, then rebounding early — masking true slack if headline unemployment alone is tracked. Tracking these dimensions helps distinguish cyclical slack from structural mismatches and calibrate monetary policy accordingly.
Updated: 2026-02-05 by María López
Key Takeaways
INEGI's Q4 2025 productivity release shows secondary sector output at 101, reflecting a modest upward trend, yet presents a complex landscape of performance across its subsectors. The latest INEGI productivity data for Q4 2025, released in February 2026, indicates that secondary sector productivity stands at 101, signaling a 0.578 increase from the previous month. This growth, however, is not universally felt; while sectors like construction have surged, buoyed by a robust upward streak, the mining sector remains mired in a dismal 10th percentile, reflecting broader economic challenges. The divergence in performance suggests that while some areas are thriving, others are struggling—an indication that the gains in productivity may not be as resilient as they seem.
Manufacturing composites reveal a troubling divergence between productivity and labor demand. Across the PCA indices, manufacturing composites show a worrying trend: while productivity has stabilized at 0.281, sales have outpaced it with a recent uptick, revealing a delicate balance that raises sustainability concerns. Labor demand, however, has fallen sharply to -1.49, indicating that despite higher sales, the industry is not translating this into hiring or investment—an ominous sign for future growth.
Within manufacturing, construction stands out as a beacon of strength, while transport equipment falters. The top-performing subsectors within manufacturing include construction, which boasts a productivity index of 105, reflecting a 2-month upward streak, and food production, stable at 109. However, the transport equipment subsector has witnessed a steep decline, with productivity dropping to 98.5, highlighting the struggles of a sector that carries significant weight in overall manufacturing performance. This stark contrast further underscores the uneven recovery across the industrial landscape, with implications for resource allocation and strategic planning.
Productivity trends reveal the economy's capacity to grow without stoking inflation. In Mexico, productivity in the secondary sector — mining, energy, construction, and especially manufacturing — signals how efficiently output expands relative to inputs. Strong productivity gains mean firms can meet demand without raising prices, easing inflation pressure and supporting sustainable wage growth. Weak productivity, by contrast, constrains supply, making cost shocks more inflationary. Manufacturing deserves closer scrutiny, as its diverse subsectors respond differently to global demand, exchange rate shifts, and investment cycles. Tracking these patterns helps judge whether growth is supported by efficiency gains or reliant on credit and labor cost increases.
Updated: 2026-02-06 by Jorge Martínez
Key Takeaways
The January 2026 consumer confidence survey shows the general index at 1.15, reflecting a slight dip in sentiment as worries about rule of law and security continue to cast a long shadow. INEGI's latest January release reveals confidence at the 87th percentile, indicating that while consumers are generally optimistic, they are feeling the pinch as the index fell by 0.123 points from the previous month. The most striking divergence comes from the durables-specific index, which remains a robust 2.11 and suggests that consumers are still keen to splurge on big-ticket items, even as confidence in general stability wanes. This discrepancy hints at a complex consumer psyche that’s eager to buy but wary of the broader economic landscape.
Consumer confidence surveys gauge how secure households feel about their income and the economy. The general confidence index reflects overall sentiment, while sector-specific measures — such as willingness to purchase durables or housing — reveal spending appetite in categories most sensitive to interest rates. Stronger confidence supports consumption and can add inflationary pressure; weaker confidence signals caution and potential slack. For monetary policy, these indicators help anticipate whether rate moves are restraining or stimulating household demand.
COMING SOON...
Updated: 2026-02-04 by Pablo Rivas
Key Takeaways
The January 2026 SPF survey shows the aggregate Concern Index at 2.83, reflecting a dip from last month. The January 2026 SPF survey shows the aggregate Concern Index at 2.83, placing it around the 64th percentile. This index is falling, down by 0.06 from December. It's worth noting, though, that over the past year, concerns have crept up by 0.55, indicating a growing unease among economists despite this recent dip.
Economists have identified public insecurity as the leading constraint on growth, with a notable uptick in concerns over U.S. The key constraints currently cited include public insecurity at 10.1%, U.S. trade policy at 8.4%, and a lack of structural change at 4.2%. The single biggest mover this month is public insecurity, which saw a rise of 1.53 percentage points. This growing concern reflects broader anxieties about safety and stability, which could weigh heavily on economic confidence.
The perceived probability of recession stands at 25.0%, marking a moderate level of concern relative to historical norms. Recession concerns among surveyed economists are currently moderate, reflecting a 25.0% probability compared to the previous quarter. This signals a bit of unease, especially given the elevated standing relative to historical averages. Looking ahead, the probability eases to 15.0% for the next quarter, suggesting some confidence that the economy might stabilize in the near term.
According to forecasters, the peso is viewed as overvalued, indicating a persistent misalignment in expectations. FX expectations suggest the peso is overvalued, with a current-month misalignment of +0.205. This perception has been consistent across the forecast horizon, indicating a sustained belief that the peso is weaker than anticipated. Such misalignment might prompt policymakers to reconsider interventions to stabilize the currency.
Banxico's Survey of Professional Forecasters (Encuesta sobre las Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía del Sector Privado) polls economists from major financial institutions, consultancies, and research centers. Published monthly, it captures expert views on growth constraints, inflation expectations, and recession risks before official data confirm trends. Because these respondents shape market narratives and influence investment decisions, the survey offers an early window into shifting professional sentiment — making it a valuable leading indicator for policymakers and market participants alike.
Updated: 2026-02-11 by Pablo Rivas
Key Takeaways
Mexican equity markets as of February 11, 2026, show excess returns at 0.0408, reflecting a modest uptick amid a generally stable environment. With market data through February 11, 2026, the excess return stands at 0.0408, signaling that investors are finding some pockets of opportunity, though it’s still a tad below the levels seen half a year ago. Realized volatility, on the other hand, is clocking in at 0.0088, which, while stable, indicates a slight rise in activity over the past month. Notably, liquidity challenges are still lingering, with the illiquidity index reaching 137.45, reflecting a tightening environment that might give some folks pause. All in all, the market seems to be treading cautiously, without any shocking spikes recently, but with an eye on broader economic signals.
The decomposition shows that recent volatility has been largely driven by US policy shocks and ongoing uncertainty. In this latest stretch, US policy shocks have been the main culprits behind the fluctuations we've seen, alongside a persistent cloud of uncertainty that’s been hanging over the markets. Both factors have kept traders on their toes, with liquidity and financing concerns also making their presence felt. It’s a cocktail of influences, but the overarching theme remains one of caution as we navigate these waters.
Investor sentiment appears to be cautiously optimistic, yet underlying uncertainty remains palpable. Investor sentiment, as reflected in recent AAII and NAAIM surveys, is showing a bit of a bounce, suggesting that folks are feeling a little better about the near-term prospects, even if they’re not throwing caution to the wind just yet. Meanwhile, policy uncertainty continues to hang around, making it clear that while there’s some hope, there’s also a healthy dose of wariness in the air. It’s a classic case of wanting to see the glass half full, but knowing that the other half might still be a bit murky.
Financial market returns, volatility, and liquidity signal investor sentiment and risk appetite. Excess returns over government bonds capture the risk premium investors demand for holding equities; wider spreads suggest higher perceived risk or stronger growth prospects. Realized volatility in a stock market index reflects uncertainty — sharp swings indicate fragile sentiment and raise the cost of capital. Illiquidity shows how trading volume and price impact interact: when liquidity dries up, small trades can move prices disproportionately, amplifying shocks. For monetary policy, these indicators matter because they shape funding costs, investment flows, and the broader transmission of rate decisions into financial conditions.
Updated: 2026-02-11 by Pablo Rivas
Key Takeaways
Banxico's February 2026 credit release shows money market spreads tightening as the latest TIIE rates hover around 0.19%. Following the latest February lending data, rate premia have narrowed significantly, with the TIIE spread tightening by -0.107 from the previous month. This brings the spread down to around the 6th percentile historically, indicating that funding costs are getting a bit easier for borrowers. Such tightening trends could signal improved liquidity in the market, potentially boosting lending activity moving forward.
Household mortgage rates remain elevated, with the total annual cost (CAT) averaging 14%, reflecting a mix of affordability challenges. The total annual cost of mortgages shows a range from 11.1% to 28.2%, which suggests that while some borrowers may find options, many are grappling with high costs. This high CAT indicates that the pass-through from policy rates isn't making mortgages any cheaper for the average family, keeping affordability in check and curbing demand for home loans.
Debt issuance patterns show a strong preference for fixed-rate financing among corporations, signaling a shift in how firms are navigating the current interest rate environment. Corporate financing is heavily tilted toward fixed-rate debt, making up 19.63% of GDP, while variable rates lag behind at 10.22%. This preference indicates that firms are locking in rates to hedge against uncertainty, reflecting a cautious approach amidst fluctuating economic conditions. With issuance at a record high, businesses are likely seeking stability in their financing strategies.
Rate premia show how market and bank funding costs move relative to the policy rate, indicating the efficiency of monetary transmission. Household mortgage rates capture the cost of long-term borrowing — their sharp rise in recent years signals affordability pressures and distributional effects, as many families face double-digit costs. Debt issuance patterns, normalized by GDP, reveal how firms finance themselves; the balance between fixed and variable rates matters for vulnerability to policy shifts. Together, these indicators show how policy rates filter into real borrowing conditions, affecting credit demand, investment, and ultimately growth and inflation dynamics.
